Fantasy Sports

Overrated/Underrated Keepers

2006-08-29T03:41:00.000-05:00

It's getting close to the end of fantasy season for some of us that means the title chase, for others it means time to look towards next year. As a guide for that bunch here is my lists of overrated and underrated keepers for 2007.

Overrated
10. Jason Bay--He's running less, his team is terrible and that won't change and he doesn't hit .300 over have an OPS over 1.000, Don't let anyone convince you he's a top 10-15 keeper, he's top 30 talent definitely, but other outfielders have better numbers and cost significantly less
9.Bob Abreu--His power is dissappearing at an alarming rate, 10 HR this year, and some point soon he's going to lose a step, don't let that happen for your team.
8.Jimmy Rollins--He produces in two categories, Runs and SB, is adequate in HR, and does little anywhere else. He's not worth the late 3rd round/early 4th round price tag many people want
7.Alex Rios--After a torrid april and may he's done nothing, absolutely nothing. I've seen him dropped in multiple single season leagues. Yet somehow people think he's a top 50 keeper. Not on my list
6. Scott Kazmir--May not throw again until Spring Training next year, the shoulder injury is more serious than the Rays seem to be letting on, plus he faded at the end of this year badly
5.Francisco Liriano--Remember King Felix from this years draft? How about Oliver Perez the year before? What about Mark Prior before that? Breakout, can't miss, pitchers consistently have troubles in their second year as a starter. The arm troubles don't bode well either. If you own him, move him for a stable starter like Chris Carpenter. Maybe a little less upside, but a lot less risk.
4.Rafael Furcal--Jimmy Rollins, except worse stats in pretty much every single category. Stay Away.
3.Ryan Zimmerman--Good player, but any talk of him being a top 75 much less a top 50 player is ridiculous. He has upside, but don't just pencil in those huge jumps in production that he would need to attain that level.
2.Jonathan Papelbon--Is he a good closer? Yes. Is he the next coming of Mariano Rivera? Give him a few more years. Remember how unhittable Lidge looked two years ago? Plus, who knows whether he will be a closer or starter next year. As a starter, he's got nowhere near as much value.
1.David Wright--22, 2, 17, 4, .241, .689---those are Wrights R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, and OPS since the break. He is not the 35 HR, 120 RBI guy everyone seems to assume he is. He is not a top 5 pick, so don't let anyone tell you different.

Underrated
8.Jermaine Dye--Just keeps getting better. Has a perfect spot in that potent lineup and is in his prime. if you can get him for 5th-7th round talent, do it. He will produce.
7. Albert Pujols--quite frankly, no matter what he is underrated in fantasy baseball, no one comes close to him in value.
6.Travis Hafner--Ortiz gets all the pub, but Hafner is just as good. Ortiz has better power number by a little, but Hafner hits for a better average and comes alot cheaper
5.Johan Santana--Quick, how old is Santana? He's 27, 27!!! He's just getting ready to enter his prime. In fantasy baseball as far as pitching, there is him and then a gigantic, grand canyon size gap before the next player. He gives you elite numbers in every category and never has a bad year. If someone undervalues him or you can pry him away for someone more exciting (like David Wright), do it.
4. Miguel Cabrera-Let everyone drool all over Wright, the best 3B in the NL is this guy. He's 23, has no protection and is hitting close to .340 with better power numbers than Wright. This is the young 3B you want with that 1st round pick.
3.Lance Berkman--4th in the MLB in RBI, 9th in HR, 7th in OPS, top 30 in batting average, yet he's still somehow considered a second round or worse talent. How is that possible? Plus he's eligible at both 1B and OF
2.Gary Sheffield--Yeah he's been hurt all year, and there are question marks but in deep keeper leagues he's a bargain. We're talking about a guy who has been automatic for 100, 35, 120, .300 for over 5 years. Yet people are valuing him around 80-100 as far as the top players available. If you can get him for that type of talent, thank your lucky stars.
1.Matt Holliday--Look at Jason Bay's numbers. Now look at his. Now tell me how much better Bay is than Holliday. Holliday is a superstar that will not come cheap in the future, he's about to be a whole lot more expensive for the next 7-10 years.

24th Round

2006-03-20T14:15:00.000-06:00

Round 24
Jackie- Casey Fossum (SP, TB) The tradition continues.
Durward- H. Carrasco (SP,RP LAA) Whatever, nothing special here.
SCHALL (from Ted)- Ian Kinsler (SS, Tex) Their hitting prospects usually turn out pretty good, nice pick.
Greg- Pedro Feliz (1B-3B-OF, SF) Multi position eligibility means he's probably worth a last round flyer.
Drew- Mike Timlin (RP, Bos) If Foulke isn't healthy this could be a great pick.
Shawn- (Sammy Sosa, OF, FA) The only thing worse than taking a AAA player is taking a retired player. Why not take Palmeiro?
Farmer- Jesse Crain (RP, Min) I'll just assume you know more about Minnesota pitching than me.
Bryce- Dan Micelli (RP, TB) Looks like he may be getting the closers job in Tampa, he probably won't keep it past the first few weeks, but whatever.
Brian- Edwin Encarnacion (3B, Cin) Tearing it up in spring training, could be a very good pick.
Jalopy- Kenny Rogers (SP, Det) Even if he has something left in the tank, he doesn't exactly tear it up away from Arlington. We'll see though.
Schall- Paul Maholm (SP, Pit) Decent pick.
Tim- Ambiorix Burgos (RP, KC) If you guys at the end of the freaking draft wouldn't have taken so long to pick, this guy would be mine. It really sucks, Nice pick. I'm pretty sure this is all Brian's Fault.
Best Pick-Burgos, damn you Brian
Worst Pick-Sosa, D-O-N-E

23rd Round Analysis

2006-03-20T14:14:00.000-06:00

Round 23
Tim- Chris Duffy (OF, Pit) Not a terrible risk.
Schall- Adam Eaton (SP, Tex) Yeah, enjoy Eaton. He sucks.
Jalopy- Brandon Backe (SP, Hou) Good Pick. He'll break out sooner or later, he's too good not to.
Brian- David Bush (SP, Mil) Nothing special.
Bryce- Dallas McPherson (3B, Ana) I only need him for 15 games. We'll see how hot of a start he gets off to.
Farmer- Joey Devine (RP, Atl) Damn, you suck. He was definitely going to be my 24th round pick. Now you can vouch for everyone that I'm honest if they send me their picks. You suck.
Shawn-Josh Towers (SP, Tor) Pretty good use of a late pick.
Drew- Ron Belliard (2B, Cle) It's the 23rd round so no pick is really terrible, I doubt he makes it 2 weeks on your team though.
Greg- Preston Wilson (OF, Hou) I don't expect his numbers to be much, if any, lower than his average at Coors. Pretty decent pick.
Ted- Tom Glavine (SP, NYM) Not bad, his numbers have been trending downward for awhile now though.
Durward- B.J. Upton (SS, TB) How many AAA players do you plan on drafting? The D Rays aren't going to call him up unless Lugo starts off the year hit .200 or Lugo is traded.
Jackie- Paul Lo Duca (C, NYM) Everyone has to have a Catcher. He's not too bad.
Best Pick-Backe, he'll put it all together sooner or later, he's already decent.
Worst Pick-Upton, No pick is really that bad in the 24th round, but you should at least try to get one who has a chance to stay out of AAA

22nd Round Analysis

2006-03-20T14:12:00.000-06:00

Round 22
Jackie- Kenny Lofton (OF, LAD) The guy still gets it done. As long as he plays, expect him to contribute.
Durward- Jorge Sosa (SP, RP, Atl) I think Farmer dumped on your pitching staff enough. I'll let you have a pass on this one.
Ted- Luis Gonzalez (OF, Ari) I think he's done. I'm expecting a Sosa like drop off soon.
Greg- Corey Patterson (OF, Bal) It's the 22nd round, he's had a good spring, why not take a chance on him.
Drew- David Eckstein (SS-StL) Decent SS. Gives pretty good numbers, nothing special.
Shawn-Tony Clark (1B, Ari) LAst years numbers were impressive, but wayyy off his career pace. Still probably worth a late round pick though.
Farmer- Scott Baker (SP, Min) Like Farmer said in his email to me asking me to pick him while he was out--"He's like Liriano, only in the beague leagues" I couldn't have said it better myself. The Twins have a pretty good history of developing big league arms.
Bryce- Josh Willingham (C, Fla) This guy could be an absolute beast at C. If he retains C eligibility for next season I wouldn't be surprised to see him the top rated C overall. Either that or nowhere near the top 25, one of the two.
Brian-Jae Seo (SP, LAD) Has looked great in the WBC. At least a few people were thinking about taking a flyer on him in the last two rounds of the draft.
Jalopy- Carlos Guillen (SS, Det) Not far removed from a great fantasy season. Worth a flyer this late.
Schall- Joey Gathright (OF, Tam) Could end up being the biggest steal of the draft. Has a ton of potential and with Delmon Young being demoted he's pretty much assured a spot in the lineup.
Tim- Jason Marquis (SP, StL) I like Marquis, I always have thought he's a bit underrated. Good Pick.
Best Pick-Gathright, Very good pick, huge upside, I'm already kicking myself for not grabbing him.
Worst Pick-Sosa,I think you may be deliberately doing this.

21st Round

2006-03-20T14:11:00.000-06:00

Round 21
Tim- Mike Lowell (2B,3B, Bos) If I had known he had 2B eligibility he never would have lasted this long. Great pickup. Good risk this late
Schall- Rafael Soriano (RP, Sea) Eh, not a bad pitcher.
Jalopy- Jay Gibbon (1B,OF, Bal) Don't you draft him every year? Seriously? Don't you drop him after the first month every year? That's what I thought.
Brian- Austin Kearns (OF, Cin) They've made room for him in that outfield, now if he could just stay healthy you could have a decent pick.
Bryce- Carlos Silva (SP, Min) Pretty good Pitcher. I'm just trying to figure out why good pitchers like him are being left on the board in favor of AAA pitchers.
Farmer- Trot Nixon (OF, Bos) He's your Griffey. I don't remember him ever not being on your team. I guess you always need somebody to fill those DL spots.
Shawn- Kris Benson (SP, Bal) Eh, his wife's hot. She'll probably end up having a better career than him.
Drew- Jake Westbrook (SP, Cle) Not a bad pick, pretty stable pitcher with a bit of an upside especially for CG's Greg- Greg Maddux (SP, ChC) Eh, he's probably good for 12 wins
Ted- Bob Howry (RP, ChC) The Cubs closer situation has been anything but stable over the last few years so this could be a very good pick.
Durward- Brandon McCarthy (SP, CWS) Good pick, except that I don't see how he possibly breaks into that rotation. Every one of the top 5 has pitched lights out in spring training.
Jackie- Bruce Chen (SP, Bal) Chen's washed up.
Best pick-Lowell, I can't believe he has 2B eligibility
Worst Pick-McCarthy, at least Liriano and Reyes have a chance at a spot in the rotation

20th Round

2006-03-20T14:08:00.000-06:00

Round 20
Jackie- D. Weathers (RP, Cin) Should get the chance to try and close games for them. Good Pick.
Durward- S. Shields (RP, LAA) Always picks up alot of wins in relief and has good numbers in other categories. Not a bad choice to round out your RP's.
Ted- Phil Nevin (1B, Tex) He bitched and moaned his way out of San Diego to a great spot in Texas. Should end up with decent numbers. Good Pick
Greg-Mike Mussina (SP, NYY) Not what he once was but he's pretty much guaranteed 15 wins. That's pretty good at this point of the draft.
Drew- Jacque Jones (OF, ChC) Eh, there were better OF's available.
Shawn- Wilson Betemit (SS,3B, Atl) Where exactly is Betemit gonna play this year? I don't see any spot in the IF and I haven't heard anything about him trying out the OF.
Farmer-Nick Johnson (1B, Was) Great pickup. Should give you a quality 50 AB's before going on the DL for the remainder of the year with a hangnail.
Bryce-Carl Pavano (SP, NYY) He was a keeper a year ago. It usually takes players at least a year, especially pitchers, to adjust to NY. I expect pretty big things out of him this year. Brian- Anthony Reyes (SP, StL) OK, whatever. We'll see if he makes the rotation. But really, would he not have been available in the last round?
Jalopy- Aaron Heilman (SP, RP, NYM) The Mets would be retarded not to stick him in the rotation. But these are the Mets so I expect him to start the year in the bullpen.
Schall- Ryan Madson (RP, Phi) If Gordon can't keep the closer's job it's a pretty safe bet this guy gets it. Not a bad pick up.
Tim- Joe Borowski (RP, Fla) I'm putting an over/under at 25 saves for all Marlins combined.
Best Pick-Pavano, really last year wasn't a total disaster and it took Mussina and Clemens a year to adjust as well.
Worst Pick-Betemit-I just don't see anywhere for him to play.

19th Round

2006-03-20T14:06:00.000-06:00

Round 19
Tim-Brad Radke (SP, Min) Eh, he's good for a few CG's and steady numbers in other categories, you could do worse.
Schall- Nick Swisher (OF, Oak) I figure someone out there in Oakland has to develop into an offensive force, right. Very easily could be him. How did the A's win that many games with almost no offensive threats?
Jalopy- Mike Jacobs (1B, Fla) His numbers, although a small sample size, are impressive. Good Pick
Brian- Bobby Crosby (SS, Oak) Crosby seems like the prototype of a guy due for a huge breakout season. This could be a huge steal by Brian.
Bryce- Brian McCann (C, Atl) In the Braves series vs. the Astros he was the guy that scared me the most outside of the Jones' and Furcal when he was at bat. I have a very good feeling about him.
Farmer- Bengie Molina (C, Tor) I hate when athletes pull the "If I don't get the right offer, I'm gonna sit out a year" routine. How the hell is that going to help you get more money? That's just stupid. It's like when your a kid and there's always one kid who cries "if nobody plays with me then I'm going home"---what does every other kid there say "Fine, go home". I don't get why any player would do that. Accept a one year deal and move on with your life.
Shawn- Scott Linebrink (RP, SD) I guess you're banking on a Hoffman injury, right?
Drew- Shea Hillenbrand (1B/3B, Tor) Thanks Drew, he was my next pick. I planned on sliding him comfortably into that 3B hole. Good pick.
Greg-Chad Orvella (RP, TB) He's a possible closer, so decent pick.
Ted- Luis Castillo (2B, Min) The Minnesota manager plans to run more with him, but I doubt it lasts. Castillo hasn't lost a step, he's lost more like 4 or 5.
Durward- Milton Bradley (OF, Oak) Bradley has so much potential, and thus can always find a real life and fantasy owner that will take a chance on him. But Bradley is like that one really good looking psycho girl that everyone knows. Everyone tries to date her because she's hot, but it never works because she always does something psycho--like tell all your women friends that she's not afraid to "cut a bitch" if a girl messes with her man. Bradley's tempting but in the end, you're just better off without having to deal with him.
Jackie- L. Overbay (1B, Tor) Good pick, should have good numbers in that revamped Toronto lineup.
Best Pick--Overbay, should hit well if they slide him into a good spot in that lineup, which they likely will.
Worst Pick--Linebrink, I just figure if you're gonna draft a setup man, draft one from a team with an unsettled closer.

18th Round

2006-03-20T14:03:00.000-06:00

Round 18
Jackie- Delmon Young (OF, TB) Rookies are risky, in the 18th round Young's a good pick. In the 10th round Hermida wasn't. Yes, this is still bothering me immensely.
Durward- Rocco Baldelli (OF, TB) In theory this is a good pick. A very good fantasy outfielder in the 18th round due to missing a year because of surgery. However, Baldelli was valuable because he could add 20 SB, he probably won't do that now. Plus in the first year back from that type of surgery players generally struggle.
Ted- Prince Fielder (1B, Mil) Good pick. He's got a chance to be very good.
Greg- Reggie Sanders (OF, KC) We officially have a run on Royals--3 in 3 rounds. That might be a record. Sanders still adds decent numbers although they will dip a bit by leaving St. Louis for that KC lineup.
Drew- Raul Ibanez (OF/1B, Sea) Decent Hitter. Not much else to say. There's a reason he lasted this long, he's a boring but nonetheless good pick.
Shawn- Tim Wakefield (SP, Bos) How come more people don't try and learn to throw the knuckleball? Seriously, this guys gotten a ton of years and a ton of money out of one pitch.
Farmer- Odalis Perez (SP, LAD) Looked allright in the WBC. Even if he's only a decent pitcher, pitching in Dodger's stadium makes him alot better.
Bryce- Chris Reitsma (RP, Atl) If he closes for Atlanta, I got a bargain, if he doesn't, oh well, it's only an 18th Round pick.
Brian- Curtis Granderson (OF, Det) Lots of young players in this round. Like the others he's a good risk at this point. Plus with rookie hitters you can usually tell very quickly if they are going to struggle.
Jalopy- Daniel Cabrera (SP, Bal) I think I like this Cabrera pick better than the Bedard pick, but I don't know why. It just seems like he's got the better chance to break out after Mazzeone gets ahold of him.
Schall-Gustavo Chacin (SP,Tor) Can we please get a restraining order preventing Ted from trading with Schall? Please? Chacin and a pack of Swisher Sweets for Beltre, especially after Beltre has been absolutely tearing it up in the WBC. It's for your own good Ted. Chacin's a decent player but he's not appreciably better than alot of pitchers who will be available on the waiver wire at the end of the draft.
Tim-Garret Anderson (OF, Ana) Pretty decent year last year, but those numbers are probably his ceiling now with all those injuries.
Best Pick-Fielder, has the chance to be very good.
Worst Pick-Chacin, I can't believe Schall picked up Beltre for this guy and Swisher. Ted, are you upset that I talk all the time about the Rolen trade and neglect to mention Valdes anymore? What's the deal? Anyway, who's on board for this restraining order?

17th Round

2006-03-20T14:01:00.000-06:00

Round 17
Tim- Erik Bedard (SP, Bal) Mazzeone, the pitching Jesus, is going there. So this might not be a bad pick. I mean, he's made stars out of much worse pitchers.
Schall- Matt Murton (OF,CHC) What exactly is your strategy for picking outfielders? Do you automatically eliminate a player without any question marks? I'm just trying to figure out the process here. Don't get me wrong, I like Murton as a player, I'm just trying to figure out the strategy here.
Jalopy- Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Was) Sometimes I think that you guys pick some players just to see if you can get me to admit that I don't know anything about a player. Well, I know he's a pretty good prospect but that's about it.
Brian- Chris Young (SP, SD) I can't believe somebody picked him up this early. Bastard.
Bryce-Mark Loretta (2B, Bos) I don't understand you farmer, you keep the guy last year despite all your better judgement, then this year when he moves to one of the best lineups in baseball you pick Placido freakin Polanco over him. Another one of farmer's patented, "What the Hell?" moves.
Farmer- Kelvim Escobar (SP, LAA) Does anyone else root for him to change his first name to Pablo and then just take that and run with it? I mean like come to the stadium with white stuff in his mustache and sniff the rosin bag in between pitches, and ride around with like a 200 person crew just barking orders. Wouldn't that be intimidating to hitters? Am I the only one who thinks about this sort of stuff? Nevermind. Decent pick
Shawn- Esteban Loaiza (SP, Oak) Not a bad pitcher, always throws a ton of innings, and Oakland likes to keep their starters in the game. This could add up to alot of CG's for you. Good pick.
Drew- Paul Byrd (SP, Cle) I think the fact that Byrd was a sought after Free Agent pitcher show how terrible this free agent class was. He's not a terrible pitcher and may get 15 wins, but he isn't a "sought after" caliber guy. Plus pitching for the Braves is almost like hitting in Coors field. It skews the numbers.
Greg- Jeff Weaver (SP, LAA) Probably good for a few CG's, and some wins.
Ted- Aaron Harang (SP, Cin) I'm convince Cincinnati is some sort of pitching Bermuda Triangle. Pitchers who go there are just lost forever. When was the last time there was a good Reds starting pitcher? And unlike Rockies pitchers, there's no explanation for it. Anyways, I'm sure this guy is different though, it's gonna work out for you.
Durward- Kerry Wood (SP, RP, ChC) Seriously, has anyone ever fallen as far and as fast as Kerry Wood? This is the guy who struck out 20 in a game, the next Clemens or Ryan. Now, he might be a middle reliever at best. He's probably one more injury away from an alcohol and crack binge and dating a B level porn star.
Jackie- Brad Penny (SP, LAD) Penny has the stuff to be dominant in that ballpark. This could be a real steal if he can stay healthy.
Best Pick-Tie-Loretta and Young---I think the Sportsguy is going to have to add "Former Rangers Pitching Prospect" somewhere into his vengeance scale.
Worst Pick--Wood, We're going to have to invent some sort of phrase for when Kerry Wood screws you over as a fantasy owner. Something like You just got the Wood laid to you, or something like that.

16th Round

2006-03-20T13:59:00.000-06:00

Round 16
Jackie- Matt Clement (SP, Bos) He didn't have great numbers last year but they weren't terrible and there's a good chance he could revert back to the sometimes dominant pitcher he was in Chicago. Good Pick
Durward- Francisco Liriano (SP, Min) I keep hearing he's going to start out in the bullpen. If so, he's got little to no value. Even if he starts, he likely will have a rough patch. He's going to be a very good pitcher, just probably not this year.
Ted- David Dellucci (OF, Tex) Dellucci isn't a bad player at all. Besides that terrible avg. he's pretty solid in every category. Good Pick.
Greg-Matt Morris (SP, SF) Morris really never got it together after Kile died. He had all the makings of a star pitcher but that just kind of crushed him. Maybe a change of scenery will help him.
Drew- Sean Casey (1B, Pit) I doubt he comes close to being the hitter he was in Cinncinnati. He had a nice cushy spot in the order and everybody pitched to him instead of the power threats. That won't happen in Pittsburgh.
Shawn- Keith Foulke (RP, Bos) It's getting late in the draft and most closers are gone so you might as well take a chance on a formerly dominant one.
Farmer- Bill Hall (2B,SS,3B,Mil) Where exactly is he going to play? He'll get some playing time, but do you really want a utility man on your team? What the Hell? You might as well draft Chris Burke while you're at it
Bryce- Ervin Santana (SP, LAA) Not a good pick. Good upside but likely will struggle this year as the scouting reports get out on him and the hitters adjust.
Brian-Chris Ray (RP, Bal) Can't knock picking a closer at this point.
Jalopy- Kenji Johjima (C, Sea) Japanese hitters other than Suzuki and Hideki Matsui have had a tough time adjusting here in the states. This is probably a bit early for him when you consider that fact.
Schall-Derek Lowe (SP, LAD) Everybody's been raving about how good he looks this spring. He can be dominant at times. We'll see if it continues into the season.
Tim-Robinson Cano (2B, NYY) He's going to have decent numbers but he's not the next Soriano. Still, he's a decent pick up at this point in the draft.
Best Pick-Dellucci, has good numbers despite his average. Plus a hitter in Arlington is always useful in fantasy baseball.
Worst Pick--Hall, the Util spots in a fantasy lineup don't actually have to be filled by real life utility players, just thought I'd clear that up for you.

15th Round

2006-03-20T13:56:00.000-06:00

A this point in the draft Jackie and Greg agreed to switch picks for the rest of the pick

Round 15
Tim- Michael Barrett (C, ChC) Just for fun lets compare Javy Lopez, a keeper, with Barrett who got drafted in the 15th round. Lopez- 395 AB's, 47 R's, 15 HR's, 49 RBI's, .278, .78 Barrett-424 AB's, 48 R's, 16 HR's, 61 RBI's, .276, .824 This is a very good pick, Lopez-not so much
Schall- Brian Fuentes (RP, Col) Drafting a Rockies pitcher is like having drunken sex on Spring Break. Both involve massive amounts of alcohol, lowered expectations, it always seems like its a good idea, but in the morning-it's probably gonna burn when you pee. One key difference, there's no treatment for Rockies pitchers.
Jalopy- Jon Lieber (SP, Phi) Eh, decent pick. Solid pitcher.
Brian-Nomar Garciaparra (SS-3B,LAD) You know what Nomar's actually had pretty decent numbers the last two years, better than I thought-in the 12 games he's played in the last 2 seasons. Maybe he's just pulling a Griffey and taking a few years off in the later stages of his career. Speaking of Griffey, how awesome has he looked in the WBC? Amazing. Oh, and one more thing, What MENSA reject thought up batting Vernon Wells first in that lineup? That's like buying a $400,000 car and then going to Wal Mart to buy Rims for it.
Bryce-Oliver Perez (SP, Pit) Remember Schall's convincing argument that he was the next great thing. Farmer was 100% right on that one in the end.
Farmer-Mike Sweeney (1B, KC) He's still in the league? Seriously though, in limited time he had pretty good numbers last season. His problem has always been staying healthy though.
Shawn-Willy Mo Pena (OF, Cin) He's like Adam Dunn, except without all of Dunn's plate discipline, very scary concept. He may be the first player to hit more HR's than singles over an entire year.
Drew-Jose Guillen (OF, Was) Good value pick. He shouldn't have lasted this long. Greg-M Gonzalez (RP,Pit) One of the last closers with an almost guaranteed job. Not a bad pick.
Ted- Chris Capuano (SP, Mil) Not bad, the rest of his numbers don't really match his underwhelming WHIP. We'll see if his WHIP comes down or the rest of his numbers get worse.
Durward- Mike MacDougal (RP, KC) Better pick than Fuentes. Can't argue with picking a closer at this stage of the draft though, no matter who they are.
Jackie- Brady Clark (OF, Mil) After a huge start he faded quite a bit to end up with only decent numbers. He likely falls completely back to earth this season.
Best Pick--Barrett, real good numbers for a 15th round Catcher
Worst Pick-Clark-He's almost 33 and only really has 3 seasons under his belt with last year being the only season he played full time, not exactly the type of player that inspires confidence for better things to come.

14th Round

2006-03-19T22:53:00.000-06:00

Round 14
Greg-Jose Contreras (SP,CHW) Contreras always had great stuff and last year he just figured it out at this level. He could be ready for a surge in production. Good pick.
Durward- Ivan Rodriguez (C, Det) I'm actually pretty impressed that nobody reached for this guy. He's a fine player, but nothing compared to what he used to be offensively. Right about where he should go in the draft.
Ted-Willy Taveras (OF,Hou) If Bagwell can play, Taveras is the guy that gets pushed out of the starting lineup. You may have drafted an Astros bench player two years in a row.
Jackie- J. Garland (SP, CWS) Decent Pitcher on a good team. Good pick.
Drew- Kevin Millwood (SP, Tex) Last time he signed a free agent contract he was terrible. He's going to be a bust, maybe not a Chan Ho type bust, but still a bust.
Shawn-Moises Alou (OF, SF) Continues to hit at a great pace even though he's older than dirt. Good pick at this stage.
Farmer-Shawn Green (OF, Ari) Eh, never really lived up to his potential. Average player.
Bryce-Justin Morneau (1B, Min) I'll take 30-100 potential at this stage of the draft. How did he last this long without Ted taking him? Who's drafting for Ted?
Brian-Jeremy Bonderman (SP, Det) All is right with the world. Ted has Mauer, you have Bonderman, it's nice to now that no matter how much life changes some things stay the same. Is this his breakout year Brian?
Jalopy- Todd Jones (RP, Det) If he's only half as good as he was in Florida, you have a good pick. We'll see though
Schall- Dan Johnson (1B, Oak) Good Young first Baseman with a little pop. Decent pick.
Tim- Brad Wilkerson (OF, Tex) Wilkerson's gotta have better numbers in Arlington. This could be a real good pick. Wilkerson has the talent he just seemed freaked out by that ballpark in Washington--kind of like the Astros pitchers when they get to the juice box their first time.

Best Pick-Contreras-has the stuff to be dominating, plus he's on a great team.
Worst Pick-Taveras, I know you needed speed but this is probably a little early for someone without a guaranteed spot.

Round 13

2006-03-12T23:07:00.000-06:00

Round 13
Greg- Chris Shelton (1B, Det) I thought there were about 5 better available 1B. Maybe you'll pick up one of them as well later but this seemed a bit high for him.
Durward- Aaron Rowand (OF, Phi) Very good pick. Rowand goes to an extreme hitters park and should do well. He still has 30-30 potential. Very tough to find those guys at this stage of the draft.
Ted- Ryan Freel (2B-3B-OF, Cin) The guy had like 35 steals in 300 something AB's. If he gets 600 AB's we're looking at a better hitting Jose Reyes. Huge pick for Ted.
Jackie- Garrett Atkins (3B, Col) Atkins had decent numbers but doesn't project as a huge power hitter. However, the Rockies do have a 3B prospect like that in their system pushing for big league AB's. That might spell doom for Atkins.
Drew- Mark Ellis (2B, Oak) Good solid numbers. 2B is alot deeper this season than in the past.
Shawn--Jermaine Dye (OF, ChW) Huge numbers, just a little worried he won't repeat those numbers this year. The Sox played a bit above their heads last year.
Farmer- Joe Blanton (SP, Oak) Had a very strong second half last year and has the stuff to form a new Big 3 with Harden and Haren in Oakland.
Bryce- Javier Vazquez (SP, CHW) Struggled badly last time he went to a good team in a large media market. I'm hoping that there isn't a repeat.
Brian-Tom Gordon (RP, Phi) Cheap price for a pretty solid pitcher whose shown ability to handle the pressure--setting up for the Yanks is probably tougher than beign the closer for half the other MLB teams.
Jalopy--Freddy Garcia (SP,CWS) Numbers have been on a bit of a decline but he's still a solid pitcher.
Schall--Matt Cain (SP, SFG) Huge upside but San Francisco hasn't been real good at developing young pitchers once they get to the big leagues.
Tim- Scott Kazmir (SP, TB) Very good pick. His numbers at the end of last year indicate he's primed for a breakout year this year.
Best Pick-Freel---Very well drafted round, the best round probably of the draft. Of all the picks only Atkins was not on my list of players I wanted to get in the 2nd half of the draft. This round really cleared out alot of the players I had on my wish list
Worst Pick-Atkins-I really didn't think he'd get picked til the 20th round or so. Colorado isn't even sure he's going to start, they have a hotshot 3B prospect they are going to give a chance to compete for the job in spring training. Not terrible numbers for Atkins, I just thought this was real early for him to go.

Mid Draft Rankings

2006-03-12T22:55:00.000-06:00

Ted
Last Year's Finish-10
IF-Mauer, Howard, Ramirez, Tejada
IF Rank-5
Analysis-A very nice, and very young IF. Definitely a strength of your team. All 4 have the potential to be 1st-2nd Round talent, if they all pan out you will definitely be in the hunt.
OF/Util-Lee, Winn, Beltre
OF/Util Rank-10
Analysis-You can tell where the early draft choices went. These aren't bad players by any means, but they aren't going to win you any championships. Plus you definitely have not picked up enough SB's and don't dominate in any category.
Offense Rank-10
Pitchers-C Zambrano, Zito, Sabathia, Street, Ryan
Pitching Rank-4
Analysis- Absolutely Right on target as far as pitching and that Ryan pick put you in a real nice spot as far as closers go.
Overall Rank-tied for 7th
Needs-Stolen bases, plus some sleepers in the OF to develop for you. Your pitching is right on target as long as you continue to make good picks. If you can pick up some talent to pack your OF and Util spots you definitely have a shot to compete. Very competitive draft so far but the lack of SB's and Run's hurt you as far as the ranking, but that should be easy to address.

Farmer
Last Year's Finish-6
IF-D Lee, P Polanco, A Rod, Furcal
IF Rank-2
Analysis-Basically you have every category covered. There is nothing that your infield doesn't do well. That's what happens when you have D Lee and A Rod there though.
OF/Util-Crawford, Burrell, Huff
OF/Util Rank-8
Analysis-You have alot less picks invested here than most players, which means you have alot of upside. I think you could use a little more power though.
Offense Rank-3
Pitchers-Pettite, Schilling, Webb, F Rodriguez, Jenks
Pitching Rank-9
Analysis-I think I was way too generous on this ranking. Schilling and Jenks are about as big of question marks as there are in the league. Who knows what they will give you. I just think that it's just as likely that they give you nothing as become top producers.
Overall Rank-6
Needs-Solid Pitching picks to back up some of your risks and some power in the outfield. Your picks from now on are definitely keys to your team, you have alot of potential to go either way-straight to the top or straight to the bottom.

Tim
Last Year's Finish-1
IF-Delgado, Roberts, Chavez, Jeter
IF Rank-9
Analysis-I think alot of people out there, including you, will disagree with this but I think that pretty much every single one of your IF's are overrated. They're decent players, just not great. Chavez especially is overrated. I don't think there's alot of anything in your IF, just average everything.
OF/Util-Wells, Bay, Hunter
OF/Util Rank-7
Analysis-I probably have your IF a bit undervalued and OF overvalued but it evens out. I like Bay, Wells, and Hunter and think they all have breakout potential--remember I never said Wells was a bad player, just that there was no way in hell he would steal 30 bases.
Offense Rank-12
Pitchers-Peavy, Duke, L Hernandez, Lidge, Dempster
Pitching Rank-7
Analysis-Peavy is very good, he's no Santana, but he's very good. I like Lidge and Dempster as well and think you have a top relief staff. I just think Duke and Hernandez are terrible picks though. I don't see Duke having a good year at all and Hernandez may be 40 for all we know and looks like a pitcher on the the tailend of his career.
Overall Rank-10
Needs-Stolen Bases and a ton of Starting Pitching. In fact forget SB, you need starting pitching. It's killing you right now, your relievers and Peavy are keeping it respectable but you aren't helping them out.

Jalopy
Last Year's Finish-3
IF-Helton, Figgins, Blalock, Peralta
IF Rank-4
Analysis-Good balance of speed and power, of course Figgins is the major source of speed, but still a very balanced IF.
OF/Util-Abreu, Griffey, Gomes, Giambi
OF/Util Rank-5
Analysis-I can't imagine Griffey and Giambi both having the year's they had last year, maybe one of the two, but not both. Your offense is balanced and good in every category.
Offense Rank-2
Pitchers-Prior, Carpenter, Isringhausen, Valverde
Pitching Rank-10
Analysis-I think you are banking way too much on Prior being a dominant starting pitcher again this year. If he's not, your pitching is screwed since you only have the 2 SP's in the first 12 rounds. Izzy and Valverde are solid but both are injury risks.
Overall Rank-tied for 3rd
Needs-Starting Pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching, and starting pitching. Oh, and a couple more OF and Util players to back up Griffey and Giambi. As long as you draft well from now on and Prior can stay healthy you are set up for a title run. You have a well balanced squad outside of your pitching and a superb offense.

Drew
Last Year's Finish-8
IF-Varitek, Thome, Ensberg, Renteria
IF Rank-8
Analysis-Your IF is way too reliant on Ensberg having another great year and Thome returning to form. It could happen but if it doesn't you're in big trouble.
OF/Util-A Jones, Pierre, Lane
OF/Util Rank-6
Analysis-This rank is assuming Lane busts out, Jones stays an MVP caliber player and Pierre returns to form so it could be too high, but I like the chances of that happening. Your OF is real well balanced and as long as you add a few good Util players you should be real solid in this category.
Offense Rank-7
Pitchers-Oswalt, Buerhle, Mulder, Wagner, Wickman
Pitching Rank-6
Analysis-Outside of Buerhle I like all of your picks, and I'm not even that down on Buerhle. This is a solid start to your pitching staff and you have plenty of potential to finish higher.
Overall Rank-9
Needs-Pretty much solid everywhere, just not real good anywhere. Add some strengths to your team. Become dominant in some category. You really aren't that far out of the race despite the ranking.

Jackie
Last Year's Finish-9
IF-Sexson, J Cantu, Lopez
IF Rank-12
Analysis-You just don't have that dominant player that sets your IF apart, plus you haven't invested alot of picks here so your IF is actually deceptively low in value. It should definitely improve in the last half of the draft
OF/Util-Beltran, Matsui, Francouer, Edmonds
OF/Util Rank-4
Analysis-Definitely the strength of your team so far. All 4 of your picks were solid, even though I'm not high on Francoeur. As long as Beltran rebounds from last season you are solid and have one of the better squads at this position.
Offense Rank-7
Pitchers-Halladay, Myers, Lackey, Rivera, Guardado
Pitching Rank-11
Analysis-The Myers pick killed you in my eyes. It was way too high and I don't think the guy is going to have a great season. Lackey is a solid pick. Myers just killed your ranking though. You definitely have potential to come back with some solid picks here in the middle of the draft though.
Overall Rank-11
Needs-Starting Pitching, SB's, and some quality sleepers in the IF. You really need Lopez and Cantu to work out and continue to get better more than anything else. Your overall rank is deceptively low. You have a huge chance to get better in the later rounds with some good picks and overall I think your draft has been pretty good. It's just a few wasted picks.

Schall
Last Year's Finish-2
IF-V Martinez, Pujols, Utley, Mora, Young
IF Rank-1
Analysis-I don't think there's a way to have a much better IF than this set. I mean, if you had A Rod at third maybe, but this is pretty impressive. You're definitely counting on your IF to carry you to victory, and there's a good chance they will.
OF/Util-Posednik, Mench, M Ordonez
OF/Util Rank-12
Analysis-Posednik fills your speed need, Mench is a fine player, and you know my feelings on Ordonez. Your OF is weak, but that's because you invested all your keepers and high picks in the IF which is a fine strategy.
Offense Rank-4
Pitchers-Harden, Schmidt, Hudson, Hoffman
Pitching Rank-8
Analysis-Your pitching has the potential to be really good but there are some huge injury questions with your top 2 SP's which holds you back. If they stay healthy, you're in great shape though. I'm not entirely convinced Harden is ready to be that fantasy ace SP just yet, but we'll see. He has great numbers when he's healthy.
Overall Rank-tied for 3rd
Needs-Basically just fill out your roster. Definitely a good start to a team. No real glaring needs besides OF and those guys are fairly easy to find late in the draft.

Durward
Last Year's Finish-11
IF-Konerko, Kent, Cabrera, Rollins
IF Rank-7
Analysis-Your IF is strong, probably stronger than I have you ranked actually. I wasn't a big fan of the Kent pick but overall you IF is solid in most every category.
OF/Util-Damon, Floyd, Drew
OF/Util Rank-9
Analysis-Your OF is also strong and solid in most every category. In fact, I can't figure out why I have you rated so low. This is a very good start to an offense. As long as you finish the draft strong you are in good shape.
Offense Rank-11
Pitchers-Willis, Colon, Haren, Nathan, Turnbow
Pitching Rank-3
Analysis-Your pitching is strong as well. There is some worry with Willis but he should be fine and also get a ton of CG. Colon and Haren are solid number 2 and 3 starters and your closers have really no question marks associated with them.
Overall Rank-tied for 7th
Needs-Just finish out your draft strong. You are alot closer to the top of the league than the bottom. You are solid in most every area and have had a very good draft. Just keep it up.

Shawn
Last Year's Finish-7
IF-J Lopez, D Ortiz, M Giles, T Glaus, Barmes
IF Rank-3
Analysis-Your IF is ranked high but it's probably not going to stay this high since most people don't have every position filled in the IF. Still it should be solid despite keeping Lopez.
OF/Util-Sizemore, Holliday
OF/Util Rank-11
Analysis-Both are solid players and Sizemore has a ton of upside but your OF is only barely better than Schall's. You guys are going to have to find some real steals at the end of the draft to fill out your OF.
Offense Rank-8
Pitchers-F Hernandez, J Smoltz, Patterson, D Davis, F Cordero
Pitching Rank-12
Analysis-Your pitching staff consists of a teenager, an almost 40 year old, two guys who've hit their ceilings and Francisco Cordero. Enough said.
Overall Rank-12
Needs-Closers, Outfielders, not having kept Lopez, and a time machine to undo some of your SP picks. You still have a shot but you have alot of ground to make up in the bottom of the draft. But hey, me rating you last has worked out good for you quite a few times before, so pretty much just ignore me.

Greg
Last Year's Finish-12
IF-Posada, Iguchi, Rolen, Reyes
IF Rank-11
Analysis-I'm not a big fan at all of Posada, Iguchi, and Rolen. Rolen has a chance for a huge comeback year but where you drafted him was way too high. He has to have huge numbers to validate that high of a choice and I don't think it's much more than a 70% chance he gets those numbers
OF/Util-Sheffield, Crisp, Hafner, C Jones
OF/Util Rank-2
Analysis-Crisp was probably a little high but the rest of your OF/Util is very solid. Hafner puts up huge numbers and Jones and Sheffield are givens. You're solid in every offensive category.
Offense Rank-6
Pitchers-Pedro, Sheets, Clemens, Benitez
Pitching Rank-2
Analysis-Benitez might have a terrible year and Clemens might not pitch at all, and then you would still have a decent staff with just Pedro and Sheets. If Clemens pitches this year you got the best value of the draft. But those question marks keep you from having the top staff in the league.
Overall Rank-5
Needs-SP as insurance in case Clemens gets hurt and some closers. Besides that just fill out your lineup well and you're golden. You aren't the '27 Yankees as some people believe but you have a solid club.

Bryce
Last Year's Finish-5
IF-Berkman, Soriano, Lugo
IF Rank-10
Analysis-Getting Lugo really saved my IF. I don't know how someone with his type of numbers, especially the SB's at his position lasts as long as he did in the draft. I didn't list Tracy here even though he'll gain eligibility 15 games into the season and that's where I'll play him. If I had listed him here it would have given me a huge bump in rating.
OF/Util-M Ramirez, Dunn, Bonds, Tracy, Hermida
OF/Util Rank-1 Analysis-I'm missing speed and Hermida was a huge reach but still my OF is very good. The power numbers are a given for my team thanks to these guys.
Offense Rank-5
Pitchers-Santana, Beckett, Lowry, Gagne
Pitching Rank-1
Analysis-I know nobody will probably agree with me but I see Beckett as a top AL Cy Young candidate this year. I don't know why I just feel he puts it all together this year. Lowry was amazing at the end of last year and looked almost unhittable down the stretch and if Gagne comes back at even 80% of what he was, I'm still in good shape.
Overall Rank-tied for 1st
Needs-A Couple top of the lineup type guys for speed and some R's and some closers. As with everyone else I'll need SP as well, it's just not as high of a priority.

Brian aka the draft filibuster man
Last Year's Finish-4
IF-Hernandez, Teixeira, Weeks, Wright
IF Rank-6
Analysis-When you start with Teixeira and Wright it's hard to screw it up too bad-you tried with the Weeks pick though. Hernandez has breakout potential though which keeps your rating up.
OF/Util-Vlad, Ichiro, B Giles, Jenkins
OF/Util Rank-3
Analysis-Good OF/Util, solid all around. Good numbers in every category.
Offense Rank-1
Pitchers-Johnson, Burnett, Lee, C Cordero
Pitching Rank-5
Analysis-I was very generous on your pitcher ranking and it's mainly due to how much I liked the Lee pick. The rest of the guys I could definitely do without. Johnson is poised for a breakdown, Burnett's never a given especially moving to the AL, and Cordero, well he's starting to grow on me so I won't rip him anymore. He's got better stuff than I gave him credit for.
Overall Rank-tied for 1st
Needs-You're gonna need a bit more speed in your offense and another power guy. Besides that you need SP. Your SP picks will determine how you end up because your offense is solid enough now that you can't really screw it up too bad.

Other People

2006-03-10T12:46:00.000-06:00

Other Members of the league do their own analysis from time to time, so I'll just post the ones that have already been done in the first half of the draft

Schall's Analysis
1-6th Round Analysis
Round 6
Greg-- Scott Rolen (3b STL) A big risk here. Not a bad pick, but no one thinks that he'll ever put up 2004 numbers again.
Durward-- J. Damon (OF, NYY) A safe pick. Guaranteed runs in that lineup, but expect numbers to fall after leaving hitter friendly Fenway Park.
Ted-- Joe Mauer (C, Min) Well you get to continue your man love for Mauer, and continue ticking off Farmer (who still wants him badly) so if for no other reason props for that.
Jackie-- J. Cantu (TB-2B,3B) 117 rbi's on the Devil Rays? He is either the most unheralded star ever, or just a flash in the pan. My vote is flash in the pan.
Drew--Mark Buehrle (P, ChW) Consistency. Consistency. Consistency. The man goes 6 innings every start.
Shawn-- John Smoltz (P, Atl) I can't explain your fixation with John Smoltz, whether he's a closer or a starter. Is he your father?
Farmer-- Fransisco Rodriguez (P,LAA) First closer drafted, and not a bad one at that.
Bryce-- Barry Bonds (OF, SF) High risk, high reward. If it pans out for you, your outfield will be ridiculous. Might best be used at a UTIL spot though because of how often he'll sit.
Brian--Rickie Weeks (2B, Mil) Upside is huge, he just has to prove himself. Can't expect a Chase Utley-like breakout, but solid numbers from 2B makes this a good risk.
Jalopy-- Jhonny Peralta (SS,Cle) Looking for power from SS, but man, that guy strikes out way too much to be a good hitter in my book.
Schall-- Scott Podsednik (OF, CWS) My outfield situation was well discussed, and Podsednik gives me the staple I need. Oh yeah, and 70 steals will be nice too.
Tim--- Brad Lidge (RP, Hou) Excellent value here, even if the Astros dont have as many save situations this year. Credit King Pujols and his magic for Lidge slipping this far. Man, that was the most majestic HR ever.
BEST PICK: I honestly can't decide. Kind of a ho-hum round with people filling gaps in their lineups. Expect this to continue in ROUND 7.
WORST PICK: Not a big fan of the Smoltz pick.

2-7th Round Analysis
Round 7
Greg-- Coco Crisp (OF, Bos) He just reminds me of Corey Patterson; this is not a good thing.
Durward-- J. Nathan (RP, Min) Solid closer.
Ted-- Huston Street (RP, Oak) Exceptional closer.
Jackie--F. Lopez (SS, CIN) Fills a need. You'd better hope last year was the real deal. Wait, I've said that about your picks two rounds in a row...
Drew--J Thome (1B, CHW) A thought this was a little early for him, but not terrible. Could easily hit 40 homers back in the AL.
Shawn--Matt Holliday (OF, Col) Good pick, but I think Wells was the safer bet.
Farmer--Pat Burrell (OF, Phi) See above comment. I do like the Phillies lineup though.
Bryce--Josh Beckett (SP, Bos) Kind of a risk, but those are the types of pitchers drafted at this stage.
Brian-- A.J. Burnett (SP, Tor) Will he return to the CG machine that he once was? Maybe not with big money BJ Ryan waiting in the pen. Regardless, he should strike out a ton of AL hitters.
Jalopy-- Hank Blalock (3B, Tex) The boy has a sky high ceiling, but the local press has been harsh on him. Why were the Rangers looking to deal him? Why does he fade after the break? Why hasn't he learned to hit lefties? That said, I still think he's going to be a great hitter (recall the All-Star game incident...)
Schall--Jason Schmidt (SP, SF) Some risk here. Last year was a horrible year for him, but that's what I said about Colon when I drafted him last year. Seeing him one-hit the Cubs in Wrigley in 2004 - throwing 98 mph in the 9th - was enough for me.
Tim--- Vernon Wells (OF, Tor) Doing a good job of scooping up value when it slides your way. Hopefully the Jays revamped lineup will give him better pitches to hit.

Farmer
1-Keeper Analysis
You want keeper round analysis? You got keeper round analysis.

Good Points:
Shawn- You needed Grady Sizemore in the worst way and not only did you get him, you got him because Jackie e-mailed from Italy to override him being selected before you.
Bryce- Keeper winner. But a blind monkey could have made those keeper selections.
Jalopy- Bold picks taking two pitchers. I think that you have solidified your pitching staff, assuming they stay healthy. Time to start thinking long and hard about getting HRs and RBIs.
Schall- You pretty much need OF and pitching, which luckily is in abundance.
Durward- I liked the strategy of taking fewer keepers. The execution could have been better though. I'm betting you took Willis for the complete games, which is a big risk on the Marlins. On the plus side, who are the Marlins going to bring in to relieve Willis?

Bad Points:
Tim- Your power threat is a Canadian. Ask yourself this, when have the words "power" and/or "threat" ever been associated with Canada.
Shawn- Ugh. Javy Lopez as a keeper? The one player that wasn't on Funston's Top 100 list. The next lowest keeper? Andy Pettitte, but he was forced on me.
Jackie- Yeah, you know.
Farmer- Offense, good. Second best behind Brian's. But that run on starting pitchers really played hell with you. Your fantasy ace is the third best pitcher on his real team, once Clemens comes back. Still, better than Colon.
Greg- I was hoping that Sheets would fall to me and you didn't do yourself any favors by taking him. You have great pitching but you REALLY need offense. You're OPS needs work. Not like Drew's, but yeah. Good news though. You have the first pick in the next couple rounds.
My analysis doesn't include complete games as they are really hard to predict.

IF THE SEASON STARTED NOW:
1- Bryce
2- Farmer
3- Brian
4- Jalopy
5- Jackie
6- Schall
7- Tim
8- Shawn
9- Ted
10- Drew
11- Durward
12- Greg
(This is interesting and shows why the lower place finisher deserves the higher draft picks.)

2-10th Round Analysis
Well, I've completed my Round 10 Rankings. This the standings if the season started after Round 10.
1- Greg
2-Jalopy
3/4- Farmer
3/4- Brian
5- Jackie
6- Bryce
7- Shawn
8/9- Ted
8/9- Tim
10- Schall
11- Durward
12- Drew
A couple notes:
- Greg made some really great picks with the Rolen, Crisp, Chipper Jones, Clemens series. I'm assuming they stay healthy. Or they play this year. Highly risky but you don't win by playing it safe.
- Schall's combo of a one-dimensional hitter (Podsednik) and a low strikeout pitcher (Hudson) really hurt him.
- So far in this draft, I was planning on taking the following pitchers with my next pick when they went off the board: Sheets, Schmidt, Meyers, Patterson, and Duke. With the exception of Schmidt, it was reasonable to assume that that player would fall to me. This has really hurt.
- Two people are dominating two categories. Bryce in OPS and HRs. Brian in strikeouts and BA. Ted, Shawn, and Schall do not have a statistical lead in any category.
- Some people have more hitter than others. This will even out.
- Shawn is closer to the lead than he is to the back.
- Schall is closer to Bryce than he is to Durward.
-Durward is hurting more in ERA and WHIP. Though that is because Bartolo Colon is playing a big part of the combined ERA and WHIP. Don't take more high WHIP pitchers and don't worry as others draft pitchers who will bring their totals up.
- Drew needs batting average. Renteria is the only player he has that will break .290. Throw out Weeks, and Brian has no one that will hit below .300.

Jackie
So, going off predicted stats for players, here's my list of standings after round 9 (which again justifies my point about greg's team getting to pick first every round! he didn't inherit a bad team... the only reason it came in last was b/c the players weren't played last year b/c the team wasn't kept up with!!!)
1 Greg
2 Brian
3 Bryce
4 Farmer
5 Tim
6 Durward
7 Jackie
8 Jalopy
9 Ted
10 Schall
11 Shawn
12 Drew

Brian
8th Round Standings
Here are the standings thus far. These do not take into account future picks or positioning via draft picks. Only current analysis of predicted finish in the league. Total rotisserie points in parenthesis.
1 - Brian (105)
2 - Greg (98)
3 - Jalopy (92)
4 - Bryce (91)
5 - Tim (89)
6 - Schall (82)
7 - Farmer (77)
8 - Ted (66)
9 - Durward (62)
10- Shawn (61)
11- Jackie (58)
12- Drew (55)
It seems like Greg is using the most of his leading round picks and Jackie is not listening to JB nearly enough.

Round 12

2006-03-10T12:43:00.000-06:00

Round 12
Greg-A Benitez (RP,SF)
Benitez is always all over the map as far as performance. He's almost the definition of inconsistent. However, I don't know that the Giants have much of a choice but to stick with him even if he's terrible, so it's not a terrible pick, just probably a little high.
Durward-J. D. Drew (OF, LAD)
Real good pick, if he can stay healthy he can definitely provide the power your offense so desperately needs. Good time for a big gamble and you made a very good one.
Ted- Adrian Beltre (3B, Sea)
Another real good gamble. Even though his career numbers aren't great you gotta take a chance on him returning to 2004 numbers.
Jackie- Eddie Guardado (RP, Sea)
He somehow continues to get it done, I don't really know how. Just beware, because that end of career dropoff has to be coming soon, doesn't it?
Drew- Bob Wickman (RP, Cle)
Almost the same exact player as Guardado. Just continues to get it done.
Shawn--Doug Davis (SP, Mil)
Davis is a good solid player, I just don't know if he merits this high of draft spot. I think he's about as good as he's gonna get, which is fine, just not 12th round level.
Farmer-Placido Polanco (2B-3B,Det)
I don't see him hitting .330 again, in fact I don't think he even gets close, which seriously impacts his value.
Bryce-Julio Lugo (SS,TB)
35 SB this late in the draft, he's like a poor man's Jimmy Rollins. Only this is round 12, not round 4. This has to be one of the better bargains of the draft.
Brian-Geoff Jenkins (OF, Mil)
Solid OF, nothing spectacular.
Jalopy- Jonny Gomes (OF, TB)
If he gets 600 AB's this year, you have yourself a heck of a bargain. I think he gets around 500 which means you still have a heck of a pick.
Schall-- Magglio Ordonez (OF, Det)
Yeah, ok. Did anybody have Magglio going before Round 15? How about Round 18? I figured right around Round 20. The man is a shell of his former self, he's almost at Sammy Sosa level. Speaking of which, where are the steroid allegations about this guy? I mean he's a superstar until they start testing and then all the sudden his career is over. I understand he had a huge knee injury, but it still looks suspicious.
Tim- Ryan Dempster (RP, ChC)
I actually like this pick, Dempster always had good stuff he just could never keep it together for enough innings to be a starter. I think he's perfect for the closers role. Good pick.
Worst Pick-Ordonez, come on Schall, did you really think anybody else had him on their list.
Best Pick-Tie-Drew and Lugo, one brings speed and the other power to teams that really needed it.

Round 11

2006-03-10T12:37:00.000-06:00

Round 11
Greg-Jorge Posada (C,NYY)
I suppose it's about time for a catcher run, probably time for 4-5 of them to go in the next couple days. Eh, not impressed.
Durward-Danny Haren (SP,OAK)
Haren really got it going in the second half of last year. He was really impressive. He definitely looks like the real deal and he has ace potential. Good Pick.
Schall (From Ted)-Kevin Mench (OF,Tex)
Mench has a ton of talent and good numbers but your OF is in trouble. I really think you needed Griffey or Edmonds last round and you didn't get either one.
Jackie-John Lackey (SP,LAA)
Great second half. Underrated even though he was a key contributor down the stretch for the Angels Championship run a few years ago. Definitely could become an anchor on your staff.
Drew-Jason Lane (OF,Hou)
Lane is in his prime and just getting used to playing in the bigs. His numbers last year were good but he's capable of alot more. A good addition to your offense.
Shawn-Francisco Cordero (RP,Tex)
I made a rule for this draft, it was called the no Cordero rule. I think both Cordero's are primed for a huge letdown this year.
Farmer-Bobby Jenks (RP,CHW)
Come on Farmer, what the heck is with this pick? Guillen changes who is closer is from week to week. There's about three relievers on that staff with closing experience. Plus Jenks has a bad habit of not coming to camp in shape and not taking baseball seriously. There's a reason numerous clubs gave up on this guy.
Bryce-Noah Lowry (SP,SF)
He struggled to start his second year, as most young pitchers do--watch out Zach Duke--but was superb down the stretch. He's got unbelievable potential and he should have a much better lineup behind him this year. I think he may be due for a Dontrelle type break out.
Brian-Ramon Hernandez (C,Bal)
Probably the best chance, along with Mauer, to jump up to the next level of catcher with Martinez. Pretty good numbers, but nothing great. That could change this year.
Jalopy-Jose Valverde (RP,Ari)
Nice numbers for Valverde, if he can stay healthy all year and keep his job he has a chance to become an elite closer.
Ted (From Schall)-CC Sabathia (SP,Cle)
Sabathia is only 25, how is that possible? It seems like he's been in the league forever. He's never quite put it all together but there's still plenty of time.
Tim-Livan Hernandez (SP,Was)
If Livan can return to his CG domination of a couple years ago this is a good pick. I'm not sure that is going to happen though which means all you get is a 31 year old(probably actually older) who has a ton of innings on his arm over the last 6-7 years.
Best Pick-Lowry, but there weren't alot of great picks. Just some good ones and a few terrible ones.
Worst Pick-Jenks, what were you thinking farmer? I know this is going to eat you alive for the remainder of the draft as well, which is a bonus.

Round 10

2006-03-10T12:35:00.000-06:00

Round 10
Greg-Tadahito Iguchi (2B,CHW)
Eh, not impressed at all. There's quite a few 2B left with similar numbers and alot more upside.
Durward-Derek Turnbow (RP,Mil)
He's not a terrible pick as a 2nd closer but your offense is seriously lacking power and you left alot of power on the board in the form of Griffey and Edmonds to pick a 2nd closer. Not a smart move in my book. Ask your wife how the strategy of bypassing offensive needs to add closers has worked out in the past for her.
Schall(From Ted)-Melvin Mora (3B,Bal)
You pretty much had to take him but I don't know if he adds a whole lot to your team. Solid but unspectacular pick.
Jackie-Jim Edmonds(OF,StL)
Like almost all of the players in this round, he had solid numbers last year but is capable of putting up much better numbers. Plus he probably slipped a round or two, so this is a good value pick. It would have been an even better pick for your husband.
Drew-Edgar Renteria (SS,Atl)
I don't know what to think about him. Going back to the national league and being inserted likely into the 2nd spot in that lineup he should put up good numbers, with a sizeable boost in SB's. But he was just sooooo terrible last year, I don't know. I think it really depends on whether he can win and keep that cushy 2nd batting spot where you usually see a ton of fastballs, and he's a great fastball hitter.
Shawn-John Patterson (SP,Was)
Patterson seems to put up the numbers year after year but I don't know that he's a great pick in this part of the draft. Most people are looking for those solid performers without breakout potential and Patterson doesn't fit that definition. A bit of a reach.
Farmer-Brandon Webb (SP,Ari)
This is the type of pitcher that you usually see drafted in this range. Good numbers but the potential for alot better ones.
Bryce-Jeremy Hermida (OF,Fla)
I had nobody planned to pick, nobody that I really thought was a good value. Then I out thought myself and persuaded myself that this was a smarter pick than adding a few other players. He is one of the best prospects in the game, but this is just too high for him. Bad pick by me.
Brian-Cliff Lee (SP,Cle)
Very good pick by Brian. Lee is an overlooked pitcher and I can't really figure out why. I was actually thinking he might slip another couple rounds then I could pick him up. Very quality pick on a very good team, should help in all categories.
Jalopy-Ken Griffey, Jr (OF,Cin)
Huge numbers last year but hamstring and leg problems don't just go away and have a habit of popping up at least once or twice a season. Risky pick but it could work out real well for you.
Schall-Trevor Hoffman (RP,SD)
This is who I should have taken. Instead I let him slip to one of my biggest competitors. Bad move and it could really cost me. Hoffman is the last of the real solid, take their numbers to the bank type closers.
Tim-Torii Hunter (OF,Min)
If Hunter comes back and continues to steal bases at a pretty good pace then this is a steal, a great pick. I don't see that happening though which means he becomes little more than an average fantasy player.
Best Pick-Lee, it's hard to ignore a player with those numbers. Great pick.
Worst Pick-Hermida, the pick was terrible, there was nobody out there I really wanted that would have been a good pick and instead of being smart I made a huge reach

9th Round

2006-03-10T12:32:00.000-06:00

As you may have noticed there was a trade of picks between Ted and Schall that affects where they drafted, just try and follow as best you can

Greg-Roger Clemens (SP,FA)
I'm not as convinced as I was back in January that he'll play another season. Regardless, it's probably a good risk to take in the 9th round. If it works out, your pitching is dominating, if it doesn't it's still fine.
Durward-Cliff Floyd (OF,NYM)
I was ready to bash this pick until I looked at the numbers. The numbers say this is a real good pick. I had no idea he had 34 HR's last year, and then throw in double digit steals-not bad at all. Maybe a little early.
Ted-Randy Winn (OF,SF)
You definitely needed steals so you picked up some here without sacrificing in other categories. Not a bad pick at all.
Jackie-Jeff Francoeur (OF,Atl)
I think this is waaaayyy too early for him. He broke out huge but faded quite a bit down the stretch. His avg split was .413 in July, .312 in August, and .247 in September, plus I don't think he had but maybe one hit in the playoffs.
Drew-Mark Mulder (SP,STL)
Solid pick but his WHIP is pretty high when compared to his Oakland days(besides his last year at Oakland). A WHIP of almost 1.4 is not good at all. Could be a sign of a letdown coming.
Shawn-Troy Glaus (3B,Tor)
I think that alot of people underrate this guy. You don't have those type of power numbers by accident. He really adds alot to your lineup.
Farmer-Aubrey Huff (1B-OF, TB)
I have been on the Huff bandwagon for awhile, but I'm officially off of it now. He's 29 now and he has never lived up to his potential. He has a beautiful swing but just never has really put it all together. He had a couple fine seasons but really has been an underperformer up to this point in his career
Bryce-Eric Gagne (RP,LAD)
Another gamble, we'll see if any of these guys stay healthy. If not, I'm pretty much screwed. He's only a year removed from being the best reliever in baseball so hopefully he can regain that form.
Brian-Brian Giles (OF,SD)
On the downward swing of his career but you got him at a fair price and he's still a very steady contributor. Good pick, and about time you made one.
Jalopy-Jason Giambi (1B,NYY)
I think he finally may be back. Could be a great draft choice or a flop but definitely worth a gamble at this stage.
Ted- Barry Zito (SP, Oak)
Zito's still got dominating stuff, which means he still has the potential to be a fantasy ace. I don't know if you had to trade up to get him. The only possible person who could have picked him is Tim, I don't think that would have happened. Plus now Schall picks ahead of me twice, I really don't like that.
Tim-Zach Duke (SP,Pit)
I think he'll probably pitch solid-not great like last year, but solid. The problem is he still pitches for the Pirates, who suck, which means he needs to pitch great to contribute in wins plus he could get discouraged if he doesn't win a few good starts early. I don't really like this risk at all.
Best Pick-Glaus, a really well drafted round though, probably the best so far. There were quite a few contenders for this award.
Worst Pick-Duke, I just don't like when a pitcher on a bad team is thrust into the ace role in his first full year starting. It doesn't usually work out well. Plus, I still can't believe you can argue Peavy could be better than Santana. If Santana ever has a first half even remotely close to what his second half's look like it would be the best season by a pitcher probably since the 60's. Plus Peavy is worse than Santana in every single category.

8th Round

2006-03-10T12:30:00.000-06:00

Greg-Chipper Jones (3B,Atl)
I really want to bash you for this pick since you already picked a 3B and now you've used up both Util spots but actually it's not bad considering the phenomenal numbers Chipper always puts up when healthy. Plus there is a big drop off in offensive tlaent coming here soon and you got one of the last big contributors.
Durward-Bartolo Colon (SP,Ana)
Is Colon not the worst Cy Young winner in the last 10 years? I mean, how is Bartolo Colon a Cy Young winner? I find this unbelievable. Watch out for a slow start, Colon has a bad habit of taking a year off now and then. If you see phrases like "came to camp 40 pounds overweight" and "thinking about challenging the skinny Japanese guy in an eating contest"-you may want to think about trading him. They list him at 5'11" 250 lbs--yeah right. Try 280, maybe more. That is one big dude.
Ted-BJ Ryan (RP,Tor)
I can't bash this pick at all, a very shrewd move. You saw a player drop in the draft and even though you already had a closer you picked him up. I just knew he was going to drop to me, but it didn't happen.
Jackie-Brett Myers (SP,Phi)
I just want to know, did anybody have Myers anywhere near the top of their best available players left list? Anyone besides Jackie that is? Jackie you totally took my guy, the one I planned on taking...in the 15th round.
Drew-Jason Varitek (C,Bos)
This is probably about where he should be taken. And Javy Lopez should go in the next 2-3 rounds after he's taken...Oh wait, Javy's already taken, my bad.
Shawn-Clint Barmes (SS,Col)
Well, he's got the obligatory Deer meat injury out of the way early in career, I mean that happens to about every big leaguer at least once. How do you get injured carrying deer meat? These type of things need to be filmed. I also would like to see the look on everyone's faces when Berkman hurt himself playing flag football. My favorite will always be Brian Griese injuring himself by tripping over his dog. I gotta think you shoot the dog after that, am I right? How come they don't have more videos of this type of stuff? Oh yeah, good pick.
Farmer-Curt Schilling (SP,Bos)
So last year Farmer fills his entire OF with aging OF's who are injury risks. Apparently he's going to use the same method to fill his pitching staff this year. Too bad Kevin Brown retired, huh? Schilling seems done to me, I think the World series got him. Roger Clemens has always said a pitcher can always recover from arm problems but when the legs go he's done.
Bryce-Chad Tracy (1B-OF, Ari)
I had to deal with drafting after you last year Schall, now it's time for a little bit of payback. Tracy has a ton of upside plus should have 3B eligibility after 15 games.
Brian-Chad Cordero (RP, Was)
If I were to pick one guy destined to become this generations Jose Mesa of closers this is the guy. I mean this guy just screams fluke. Is there really that big of difference between him and Todd Jones besides age? I just don't see it, maybe someone can convince me, but I don't see it.
Jalopy-Jason Isringhausen (RP, StL)
As long as he's healthy, and that's always a huge issue-he's a top performer. Don't you wish you would have taken Ryan last round instead of having to take Izzy this round?
Schall-Tim Hudson (SP,Atl)
I think Hudson adds alot of stability to your staff because Schmidt and Harden weren't exactly the picture of health last year. I like this pick.
Tim-Brian Roberts (2B,Bal)
Well, the question is which Roberts will you get after the injury. Last years Roberts who was on his way to becoming a fantasy stud or the old Roberts, who was just so-so. I think it's worth the gamble though at this point in the draft.
Best Pick--Ryan--Two 100 K closers will really help you in that category. Nice Call on him.
Worst Pick-Myers--Mr. Price, I understand that what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas but that really doesn't apply to the fantasy team since you'll still have these players when you return home. My advice, step away from the craps table for 15 minutes, get a cup of coffee and call your daughter to advise her on this draft. It's been all downhill since Sizemore. Wait, am I ripping on someone's dad now? This may be a first for me.

Round 7

2006-03-10T12:27:00.000-06:00

Round 7
Greg-- Coco Crisp (OF, Bos)
I don't really know what to say on this pick. The Boston leadoff spot is guaranteed 100+ runs so it's not terrible, but on the other hand he just doesn't wow you in any way. Plus I don't think he works a count as well as Damon.
Durward-- J. Nathan (RP, Min)
I was sold on him until I talked to Farmer and Farmer said he likes to work in and out of trouble. That's a scary proposition for a closer.
Ted-- Huston Street (RP, Oak)
Best young closer in the game, we could be looking at the next Rivera, he's that talented and poised.
Jackie--F. Lopez (SS, CIN)
Lopez is a poor man's Cantu. That's never a good sign. As much as I like the Cantu pick I really dislike this pick. It seems like a reach to fill a position.
Drew--J Thome (1B, CHW)
Never take former sluggers after they miss an entire year to injury. It never ends up well. This is too high for someone of his caliber to be drafted.
Shawn--Matt Holliday (OF, Col)
Holliday is due for a breakout year. Coors takes him from a solid fantasy player to an elite player. He should have some huge numbers this year.
Farmer--Pat Burrell (OF, Phi)
Burrell is underrated due to that terrible year, but last year was phenomenal. Konerko did the same type of thing a few years ago. You may have reached but I think it will work out well for you.
Bryce--Josh Beckett (SP, Bos)
Top 10 as far as stuff in the MLB. If he can stay healthy he's a top contender for the Cy Young.
Brian-- A.J. Burnett (SP, Tor)
Burnett is not Beckett. Ask 1000 hitters in the MLB who they would rather face and I guarantee it's Burnett every time. Plus Burnett isn't exactly the model of consistency and health. I think Toronto made a mistake signing him and you made one drafting him.
Jalopy-- Hank Blalock (3B, Tex)
This is about where he should fall in the draft. I predict a breakout season for him. He's had way too much pressure on him the last few years, now the pressure is on that revamped staff. He'll be a bargain.
Schall--Jason Schmidt (SP, SF)
Huge risk. Schmidt is getting up there in years and you never know how a pitcher will rebound from injury, remember Kevin Brown about 4 years ago.
Tim--- Vernon Wells (OF, Tor)
The bargains just keep falling into your lap. Although I do think Wells is a bit overrated you got a bargain again
Best Pick-Blalock-I see him having a real breakout season.
Worst Pick-Lopez--I just don't see him approaching last years numbers

My Keeper League-The Draft, Round 6

2006-03-10T12:23:00.000-06:00

Round 6
Greg-- Scott Rolen 3b STL
Here's the thing, if you are going to reach for someone and make a bad pick they better have a major upside. Rolen does have a major upside so it's not terrible, it's just that you could have had him in the 8th round instead of the 6th.
Durward-- J. Damon (OF, NYY)
I really want to say something bad about him but he is solid, you may be screwed if he bats ninth though, thats probably 40 AB's at least that he loses and I doubt he scores close to as many runs as last year. Oh yeah, and he throws like a girl. I knew I had something bad to say.
Ted-- Joe Mauer (C, Min)
I think Farmer said it best in his emails, so I'll leave it at that. Plus we can officially start the Morneau pick countdown, so that's a plus.
Jackie-- J. Cantu (TB-2B,3B)
I vote most unheralded star. The kid has some serious talent. I didn't even know the D Rays scored 117 runs last year. That brings up the riddle; If a D Ray hits a home run at the home stadium and no one is there to see it does it make a sound?
Drew--Mark Buehrle (P, ChW)
Consistency is the fantasy code word for crappy pick. Seriously, does anyone ever like to see the word consitent more than once in an analysis of their pick? That's what I thought. By the way, the word for this pick is consistent.
Shawn-- John Smoltz (P, Atl)
Don't worry, I get it. Smoltz is your Griffey. I felt naked without Griffey last year. I understand. At least your guy is a dependable player. Actually on second thought, he is about the right age to be your father, hmmm.... Oh yeah, I don't really like this pick, it looks like a definite reach pick for pitching.
Farmer-- Francisco Rodriguez (P,LAA)
I'm sorry but how can you pass on Lidge for Rodriguez. You must definitely think he's spooked. Just remember, Eckersly gave up the Gibson home run, Rivera choked two nights in a row to lose the D Backs world series--they went on to be just fine. The guy has the nastiest slider in the big leagues, he just lost it for a week. This is the same guy who almost singlehandedly won the NLCS the year before. At least take Nathan to satisfy your hometown bias...come on.
Bryce-- Barry Bonds (OF, SF)
Farmer you just don't get it. You don't see it when it's just us alone, he's nice really he is. He doesn't mean it when he hits me, his job is just so stressful, plus the steroid scandal. You'll see, he's really a good guy. Come on Barry suck it up for one more year and get those AB's or I'm screwed.
Brian--Rickie Weeks (2B, Mil)
Best case scenario .270-80-20-70-20. I'm sorry but that's not worth a 6th round pick. First guy drafted outside my top 100 list.
Jalopy-- Jhonny Peralta (SS,Cle)
There is nothing more annoying than some jackass who spells a really common name in a weird way. That and the hollywood people that name their kids with dogs names like Lordess, and Princess honeybuns, and apple. Peralta's got some upside, I actually like the pick. He's in a great lineup too.
Schall-- Scott Podsednik (OF, CWS)
Posednik kills you in RBI, HR, and OPS especially but he steals 60 bases every year. I suppose with Utley, Pujols, and Young you can afford it though. I can never seem to bring myself to pick him though.
Tim--- Brad Lidge (RP, Hou)
Last year, people said "Watch out, Lidge won't have as many save opportunities and Oswalt won't win alot of games because the Astros are terrible". They find a way to keep winning. The Astros have been in the playoffs 6 of the last 9 years. That's a pretty good run. Plus save opportunities are in no way related to team success. Save percentage is, but save opportunities are more random than anything. This is a great pick and I'm kind of wishing I had picked him with my pick right now.
BEST PICK: Lidge, and by a pretty good margin
WORST PICK: Weeks, I really wanted to try and not pick on Brian since I ripped him earlier today when he probably didn't deserve it but I just don't see him having an Utley type breakout which is about the only way he validates this draft position.

My Keeper League-The Keeper Analysis

2006-03-10T12:14:00.000-06:00

In this league you can keep 5 players from the previous year, players can be kept for up to 3 consecutive years before reentering the draft. For every keeper you lose a draft pick, thus if you keep 1 player you lose your first round pick and so on. It's a 6x6 rotissierie league with 12 people and the added categories are OPS and CG's. I analyze every round of the draft and will just paste that analysis here for everyone to view.

Time to count em off from the worst to the best keepers--plus, just for fun a grade to go with the ranking
Shawn
Ranking-12th
Keepers--Ortiz, Sizemore, Hernandez, Lopez, Giles
Grade-D+
Analysis--I think this is becoming a pattern, me ranking you last. Here's the thing, I was thinking "I hope Hernandez and Sizemore fall to me in the sixth round"--so if they are two of your top 3 keepers you're in trouble. 2B is alot deeper this year so Giles doesn't really stand out and Lopez--well I'll just chalk that up to a moving mistake. I mean, how much better are his numbers going to be the the 10th C selected? His team signed the #1 Free Agent C this offseason, that's gotta give you confidence that he's over the injuries that plagued him last year. Did you use the "eenie meeny miny moe" method of selecting keepers? Help me understand this. In fact the more I think about it, I'm removing the plus from your grade.
Jackie
Rank-11
Grade-C-
Keepers--Beltran, Sexson, Rivera, Halladay, Matsui
Analysis--The greatest part about this whole ordeal was knowing that Jackie's dad was thinking, "Please be asleep Jackie, come on guys get drafting before Jackie checks her email." At least we know that her pick wasn't based on cuteness this time--Matsui is one ugly dude. You have two bounceback superstars-Beltran, Halladay-so you might end up allright but it's not enough to bump you higher especially when you railroaded your dad's better pick. In fact I'm rooting for a 40/40 season from Sizemore so that we can witness a complete breakdown in a father-daughter relationship.
Tim
Rank-10
Grade-C-
Keepers-Bay, Delgado, Peavy, Chavez, Jeter
Analysis-You won the league last year so you can't really complain. Basically you are counting on Chavez breaking out and becoming the player he was supposed to be for the last 3 years. I don't get him being a keeper. Everyone else is pretty decent but Chavez--uck. I'm sorry but he's not better than the top 6 3B available right now. Oh well, enjoy your man crush.
Drew
Rank-9
Grade-C
Keepers-Jones, Ensberg, Oswalt, Pierre, Wagner
Analysis--Here's the thing I kind of actually like your keeper list especially considering everyone but Oswalt has another year of keeper eligibility after this one. But there are way too many question marks. Is Pierre going to bounce back, will Jones and Ensberg continue to get better or was last year just their year, Can Wagner handle NY? I mean, I like your chances, there are just too many question marks around Oswalt plus you're missing that top 10 guy that can elevate your team.
Ted
Rank-8
Grade-C+
Keepers-Tejada, Lee, A Ramirez, Howard, C Zambrano
Analysis-OK, so either Howard turns into Pujols or everyone watches his tape against lefthanders, finds the hole in his swing, and he becomes a barely top 200 player this year. I don't really see a middle ground, am I alone in this? I like your list as Ramirez, Zambrano, and Lee are underrated but I can't put you higher than this especially with Tejada taking the second half of last year off, you better hope he doesn't pull a Vince Carter on the Orioles and pout until they trade him.
Durward
Rank-7
Grade-C
Keepers-Cabrera, Willis, Kent, Rollins, Konerko Analysis--Why did I give you a worse grade than Ted and still rate you higher? Well, first you had nothing to work with and second all but Cabrera are not considered Keepers which means you could have three years with these guys if they keep improving. I would worry that you have the only two serviceable players from the worst franchise in sports though. How do you get away with two fire sales that complete destroy probable dynasties in the span of ten years. The Marlins are like the Strippers of Baseball, they lure you in, talk to you, get a repoire going with them, then they break out the "I need money for a new stadium, you want to go to the back room and buy a bottle of champagne" line. Then when you say you don't have the money they just leave you for the 50 year old sleaze in the corner-- i.e. NY Mets.
Jalopy
Rank-6
Grade-B-
Keepers-Abreu, Carpenter, Prior, Figgins, Helton
Analysis--My First thought was how the F*** can he keep Prior again, then I thought, maybe that girlfriend of his has got him into the whole pain thing. What's the saying, "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, fool me three times and I'm a f***in idiot and kind of like it in a sick and twisted way"--yeah I think that's how it goes. Everyone else looks good and adds alot to your team, but Prior? Are you still reeling from that Rolen trade?
Greg
Rank--5
Grade--B-
Keepers-Pedro, Reyes, Hafner, Sheets, Sheffield
Analysis-Reyes still has a ton of upside and already provides elite fantasy numbers. Hafner may be the #1 most underrated guy in fantasy. Sheffield hits in the middle of the Yankee's potent lineup and never gets hurt. Pedro's a given and Sheets is Oswalt without the great team around him. Really solid bunch. Nice job getting the extra keeper years for Sheets. Lacking that top 10 guy but all 5 are pretty much top 40 guys. A Real good start. Now the real Heavy hitters.

These 4 all have top notch squads and the difference between them is miniscule. The top 3 of each team are awesome keepers.
Schall
Rank-4
Grade-A-
Keepers-Pujols, Utley, Young, Martinez, Harden
Analysis--You actually dropped a spot after your "Best young pitcher in baseball comment". Umm, incorrect. Peavy, Zambrano, Willis, and Hernandez are all the same age or younger than Harden. And Santana is just way past his prime at the ripe age of 26. Harden is the second lowest rated pitcher I that is gone so far--Prior is last. And while Martinez may be the best C in the game it's not by much. The available catchers this year are like vacuums. You spent $3000 on some top of the line one while I'll spend $50 on the dirt devil from Wal Mart but in the end they both still suck. At least you didn't pull a Shawn and spend $3000 on a dirt devil.
Farmer
Rank-3
Grade-A-
Keepers--D Lee, A Rod, Crawford, Furcal, Pettite
Analysis--So admit it this whole Sheets debate over keeper years was really about you being completely pissed Sheets was taken. Then to distract everyone from noticing the first of farmers 10 draft meltdowns you came up with some "amendment" question. You have a right to break down, the difference between Sheets and Pettite is huge, it's the difference between the 3rd best and the best keepers. I'm a little dissapointed by the pick though, I was hoping for a complete meltdown--a Bartolo Colon pick followed by a dozen emails somehow showing that Bartolo really is the second coming of Cy Young.
Bryce
Rank-2
Grade-A
Analysis--I'm really not convinced that Soriano's trade is really going to hurt him as much as everyone thinks. I mean we are talking about the only 30/30 guy in all of baseball. Plus a full year of Berkman is worth at worst a second round pick and Santana is by far and away the best fantasy pitcher in baseball, and it's not even close. In fact my biggest problem is that despite all their talent Soriano and Dunn tend to have similiar batting averages to Brad Ausmus. And any time Ausmus and fantasy baseball are connected, that's a very bad thing.
Brian
Rank-1
Grade-A+
Keepers-Vlad, Teixeira, Wright, Ichiro, Johnson
Analysis-Wright and Ichiro for Rolen, what the hell Jalopy? Thanks for gift wrapping these guys for him. Did you barter down form Wright, Carpenter, and Abreu for Rolen? Did you accidentally share your league password with Isiah Thomas and he made the trade? Give me something here. In fact one more trade like this and I'm officially going to start calling you Zeke. Anyways, I didn't like the keeping of Johnson until pretty much everyone kept their borderline pitchers so it ended up well. I guess you saw the handwriting on the wall when Schall kept Harden. Great keeper list.

Mock Draft-Round 6

2006-02-15T13:22:00.000-06:00

L-61-A Pettite-SP-Don't underate him, his numbers last year were amazing and there's no reason to think he should slip this year
K-62-H Street-RP-As I said in an earlier post, this guy looks like an elite closer in the making, grab him early, especially in keeper leagues
J-63-J Mauer-C-Will he keep getting injured? That's what's keeping him from making the leap
I-64-C Jones-3B, OF-Third base isn't especially deep this year so grabbing someone with good numbers is pretty important, Chipper always puts up the numbers
H-65-BJ Ryan-RP-only one good year of closing somewhat worries me
G-66-M Giles-2B-when will he live up to expectations, still above average 2B though
F-67-C Cordero-RP-I put this pick here as a WARNING! There will be a closer run between rounds 4-7 where all the elite closers go off the board, all the closers up to now deserved to be drafted early---This guy does not, do not reach for someone like him, don't panic, wait a few rounds and pick up a guy with comparable numbers at a much better price, Cordero has fluke written all over him
E-68-D Willis-SP-Would be higher but that Marlins team was gutted, he could pitch lights out and still end up with a losing record, that's how bad the Marlins could be this year
D-69-F Lopez-SS-This is probably a reach because SS is so thin, and be assured someone will reach to fill their thin positions in these rounds, but he is only 25 and has alot of upside so it's not really a terrible pick
C-70-F Hernandez-SP-Young pitchers are always risky, you have to decide whether you are willing to take the risk
B-71-S Posednik-OF-All about the SB's and Runs because his batting average is unpredictable
A-72-M Prior-SP-Still talented enough to warrant consideration this high but he's starting to look alot more like Kerry Wood every day-and that's a bad thing

Mock Draft-Round 5

2006-02-15T13:02:00.000-06:00

A-49-R Halladay-SP-If he can keep from getting injured he's an elite pitcher
B-50-M Ensberg-3B-Don't make a mistake and draft Chavez over him, Ensberg is a much more proven commodity with just as much upside
C-51-E Chavez-3B-Still waiting for him to take it to the next level
D-52-J Cantu-2B,3B-Took it to the next level last year, burned me in a trade and I won't underrate him again
E-53-B Wagner-RP-Consistent, always gets great numbers all around from K's to WHIP to Saves always on par with the top closers
F-54-R Sexson-1B-always puts up solid top tier 1B numbers
G-55-P Konerko-1B-11 players with 1B eligibility go in the first 5 rounds, that's how deep the position is
H-56-H Matsui-OF-hits in the middle of the best lineup in baseball, don't underrate him
I-57-F Rodriguez-RP-Should just dontinue to get better
J-58-J Nathan-RP-Can sometimes get lost in the ranks of elite closers, if he falls don't hesitate
K-59-T Glaus-3B-Huge power numbers make it easier to swallow his avg.
L-60-J Damon-OF-He's going to post very similar numbers to last year, don't overrate him though, he doesn't run very much anymore and in that lineup he may not run at all

Mock Draft-Round 4

2006-02-11T17:19:00.000-06:00

Round 4
L-37-M Rivera-RP-This is really the earliest I would advise you to pick up a closer, but be aware that a closer run is definitely going to happen between rounds 4-7, it always does
K-38-C Delgado-1B-This is a little early for him in my opinion considering the incredible depth at 1B, however this is likely where he would be drafted
J-39-G Sizemore-OF-Up and comer should be a 30-30 threat for a long time to come
I-40-R Johnson-SP-High risk, high reward player, is he hitting the downslope of his career or was las t year an anomaly
H-41-A Ramirez-3B-Big numbers for someone who missed alot of AB's, with 100 more AB's could easily propel himself to elite status
G-41-C Zambrano-SP-Everyone keeps waiting for Prior and Wood to develop while this guy just plugs away with unbelievable numbers
F-43--J Kent-2B-Everyone keeps waiting for the inevitable numbers dropoff due to age, it hasn't happened yet though
E-44-R Howard-1B-A real Wild Card as far as where he may be drafted, this draft spot is a little high considering he only hit lefties at a .143 pace, if he drops to the sixth or seventh round though he's a bargain
D-45-R Harden-SP-Unbelievable talent with great numbers, but can he stay healthy this year, probably a little high but look for people to reach for the young players with high ceilings in rounds 4-8, don't take too many of them yourself, draft some steady guys to go with them
C-46-C Lee-OF-Faded a bit down the stretch but still had a breakout year and should continue to improve
B-47-B Lidge-RP-Don't worry about the playoffs, he still has unhittable stuff and was a little over extended by his manager in his first 2 years as closer which led to that, 100 K's is a nice luxury to have from a closer
A-48-A Dunn-1B,OF-Revelation that he played all of last year with a broken hand is amazing and can only give you better hope of a breakout year, his potential is unlimited, be aware of that average though

Mock Draft-Round 3

2006-02-10T18:15:00.000-06:00

Round 3
A-25-A Jones-OF-drops to this spot due to concerns over last year being a fluke
B-26-D Jeter-SS-The middle infielders are thinning out, pretty good contributor all around
C-27-T Hafner-Util-Even though he can only be used at a Util spot, those numbers are hard to ignore
D-28-L Berkman-1B, OF-Don't forget about him, he's due for a breakout year after being hampered by injuries last year
E-29-J Pierre-OF-Should bounce back from an off year, SB are very important, you almost need at least one 40 SB guy to compete
F-30-R Furcal-SS-SB is the key here, gotta get those 60 SB guys early
G-31-C Beltran-OF-not uncommon to see a big free agent struggle in his first year, he's a top 5 player if he rebounds
H-32-C Carpenter-SP-2 good years in a row, He won't quite match last years numbers but still should be a top 5 SP
I-33-V Martinez-C-First C will probably come off the board sometime around now in the draft, however this is too high a price to pay in my opinion
J-34-J Peavy-SP-Forgotten about when it comes to top SP, don't let him slip in your draft, grab him
K-35-R Oswalt-SP-Last of the really elite SP in my view, the rest are a step below
L-36-B Bonds-OF-Really don't know what to expect from him, buyer beware if you draft him

Mock Draft-Round 2

2006-02-09T16:15:00.000-06:00

Round 2
L-13-Miguel Tejada-SS-faded at end of last year but still a force at a thin position
K-14-C Figgins-2B, 3B, OF--SB numbers are so important, as is multi position eligibility in the IF
J-15-B Abreu-OF-Down year last year was still pretty good
I-16-J Bay-Huge numbers all around often get overlooked because of where he plays
H-17-J Reyes-2B-Starting to see an early run on speed and middle IF
G-18-M Cabrera-3B, OF-Would be alot higher if they hadn't traded away his entire team
F-19-G Sheffield-OF-Solid all around numbers in the best lineup in baseball
E-20-C Utley-2B-Probably a little high, but he's a stud, look at those numbers in his first year
D-21-Ichiro-OF-always good for R, SB, and Avg
C-22-J Rollins-SS-Watch in your drafts, those middle infielders with speed who are so valuable go quickly
B-23-Pedro-SP-Dominant in every pitching category
A-24-Helton-1B-Always been a top 10 guy, just had a rough year last year, buy low on him

Post note--expect the end of the first round thru the end of the third round to contain almost all of the quality middle infielders. It is not a bad strategy if you own one of the last two picks in the first round to get two of the six major studs at the middle infield positions(Young, Soriano, Tejada, Figgins, Reyes, Utley). however, don't make a huge mistake if you find yourself at the end of one of these runs and pick Giles, Kent, or Cantu in the 2nd Round

Mock Draft--Round1

2006-02-09T15:57:00.000-06:00

Here's the setup of the fictional league: 12 teams(A-L), traditional 5x5 format, 8 normal offensive positions(C-OF) plus two Util spots, 4 SP, 3 RP, 7 Bench Spots to use however

First Round
Team-pick #-player chosen-position(s)-analysis
A-1-A Rod-3B-Better lineup gives him #1 spot
B-2-Pujols-1B-could be #1, very close decision
C-3-Teixeira-1B-separates himself from those below because he's young and his numbers can get better
D-4-Ortiz-1B-steady in all categories and better numbers all around than other hitters below
E-5-Ramirez-OF-Steady performer, gives the same numbers every year
F-6-Santana-SP-WHIP is what makes him so valuable, it's ridiculous, plus he should win more this year
G-7-Vlad Guerrero-OF-numbers on somewhat of a decline
H-8-D Lee-1B-could be higher but be wary of the fact that his numbers last year were so much better than career numbers
I-9-C Crawford-OF-Importance of the SB seen early, great SB #'s and some power which is still developing
J-10-D Wright-3B-may be a little high but 3B isn't deep and his numbers were unbelievable in his first year
K-11-M Young-SS-Good all around, that avg. really helps, and SS is thin
L-12-A Soriano-2B-member of the 30-30 club, gives you everything and that avg should come up

NBA in a Nutshell

2006-02-08T18:18:00.000-06:00

EAST
There are 4 teams in the East with winning records against the Western Conference (Philadelphia and Indiana are the other two and they are both a mess as a team). You aren't getting past Detroit or Miami if you have a losing record against the Western Conference-it just ain't happening. Detroit looks good and has to be the favorite to reach the finals, but I wouldn't sleep on Miami. Nobody else has a shot.

West
It's easier to start with who absolutely has no shot in the West--Portland, Seattle, Utah, and Golden State. That's it, everyone else has at least a small shot.

One Man Teams-- Denver (Melo), Minnesota (KG), Lakers (Kobe), Hornets (Paul), Memphis (Gasol)--All would be primed for deep runs in the playoffs if they were in the East. 4 of the 5 teams are in the playoffs as of today---only 3 will eventually make it I believe. But this is the west and you can't get through the western conference with only one guy carrying your team.

Scary Teams who dug themselves huge holes--Rockets, Kings---nobody wants to see these guys in the playoffs, nobody. One of these two teams makes the playoffs, guaranteed, however I don't think after making a huge push just to get into the playoffs either team would have enough left in them to make it through the western conference.

Yeah, they look great, but they're still the Clips and Mavs---Dallas, Clippers--Both teams look great, they play hard, they make clutch plays, do everything that contenders do but there is a very good chance they see each other in the first round in a knock down drag out war with the winner getting the defending champions in the second round and a rested Phoenix in the finals. All the sudden, they don't look so good. Especially with Brand having no playoff experience and Dirk's deserved reputation for shrinking in big games.

The Elites--San Antonio, Phoenix-- Mark me down as one of those people that thought there's no way Phoenix makes a push this year after losing Johnson and Richardson and then Amare going down for over half the season. I was wrong. Phoenix is sitting real pretty, just look at the standings. As long as they hold off the Clips to win the division and SA and Dallas don't both have monumental collapses they are locked into that beautiful second seed in the west. They wouldn't have to play more than one of the other top 4 teams in the west and that wouldn't even be til the western conference finals. I can see them stealing the first two games against SA on the road after SA goes through a tough series with Dallas or LA. I think they sit in the best position of any team in the west. I went to see SA play recently in person and one thing really, really surprised me--Tony Parker is really the key to their team. He makes everything happen offensively, and it's in a really unnoticeable way. He moves the ball so well and allows Manu and Tim to do what they do best and never overextends them. I think that if you are going to beat them you really have to forget about Manu and Tim and focus on flustering him, which is tough with that speed. I do however think that someone like Dallas or Phoenix especially could give them a tough time by running that extremely old bench of theirs into the ground.

Good to see...

2006-02-08T15:58:00.000-06:00

This is back up and running. Way to go Poppa B.

Draft Strategies--Catchers and Closers

2006-02-02T17:57:00.000-06:00

There was a time not too long ago when there were available Catchers who were bona fide fantasy studs. Posada, Piazza, Pudge, and Javy Lopez were worth their weight in gold to fantasy owners. However, times have changed, now we're looking at Martinez, Varitek, and Mauer as the top fantasy backstops. The position is definitely down from a few years ago. Last year Martinez was the best C and he wasn't even a top 120 fantasy player. I'll put it like this, he had about the same number of RBI, R, HR, Avg, and OPS as Randy Winn, only Winn added 19 SB's. This is not a guy who is going to win you fantsy league titles. Which means let some other guy use picks in rounds 5-10 on those top Catchers while you pick up solid performers in the other categories then pick up a full time catcher, and someone who has C eligibility but plays another position, like Brandon Inge last year.
Closer is a little different, you can see my earlier post on punting categories for more info. In my opinion there are two successful routes to go in terms of acquiring closers. First strategy is to go for a top closer-I say get the one you want, start a run, don't finish one. Get one who contributes in WHIP, ERA, and K's like Rivera, Wagner, and Lidge. Then go for an underated, reliable closer in middle rounds who's lasted way too long, last year I got Hoffman in round 14. Finally add someone who is a first time closer in the last few rounds. the other strategy is just to add a lot of low risk candidates and fill your bench with them to start with and see who works out and try to add new closers before the rest of your league mates.

Fantasy Baseball 2006

2006-01-30T13:49:00.000-06:00

It's about that time again, that's right, the best time of the year---fantasy baseball draft time. So I thought I'd kick the season off with a few random notes.

1) I don't think I'd touch Mike Piazza or Jeff Bagwell in a fantasy draft if I was paid to.

2) I think Coco Crisp just jumped about 2 rounds in the fantasy draft moving to Boston, maybe more. He was very good on my team last year, but how much better is the Boston offense than Cleveland's? I think I'd let someone else overpay for him.

3) I think the most underrated player on the Boston team, and therefore best sleeper, is Loretta.

4) I don't think I'm going to draft anyone on the Bluejays team, they all seem extremely overated, besides Halladay. Perhaps I'll take one of their young pitchers late in the draft but besides them and Halladay I'd advise you to steer clear as they are being overhyped.

5) I think Danny Haren and Joe Blanton are future stars for the A's.

6) I may be the only one who thinks that the Rangers pitching staff didn't get significantly better this offseason. They let go of Rogers, who always pitched well there. They traded away Young for Eaton, which makes no sense considering they traded away a promising young pitcher who pitched well there for an underachiever with only one year left til free agency. Then they traded Rodriguez for Padilla, which looks alot like the Eaton trade. Then they overpay for Milwood, who after signing his last free agent contract played so horribly he got himself traded from Philadelphia to Cleveland for basically nothing. It makes no sense whatsoever. They got more experienced but not better. If I draft one player from this bunch it will definitely be Chris Young. This reminds me alot of them giving up on Doug Davis a few years ago.

7) I think the last time a first year full time starter was hyped as much as Felix Hernandez was Johan Santana and Mark Prior. They did pretty well in their first seasons.

8) I think that anybody who doesn't draft Teixiera with the third overall pick in mixed leagues(after Pujols and ARod) should be required to incorporate the word "idiot" into his/her team name.

9) I think that the Astros Outfield will produce two fantasy studs this year, the problem is that there is currently five guys out there to compete for AB's--Wilson, Lane, Tavarez, Burke, and Scott. And there's a possibility of a sixth if Bagwell takes AB's at first and Berkman moves to the OF.

10) I think Huston Street is a future stud closer. I'd definitely draft him before Ryan, the Cordero's, Izzy, Hoffman, and probably Gagne.

AFC Playoff Picture

2005-11-28T12:01:00.000-06:00

Locks

Indianapolis
Record-- 10-0
Remaining Opponents--Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville, San Diego, Seattle, Arizona
Outlook--They're in, but with Denver on their heels for the best record they can't let up. Tough games upcoming versus 2 great defensive teams-Pittsburgh and Jacksonville-and 2 great running teams--San Diego and Seattle. They won't go undefeated, take that to the bank. They've played a young Jacksonville team--that denver also beat, Cincinnati who's young as well, and a terrible New England squad---and that is it for quality opponents, let's see how they finish against some quality teams before they are annointed a great squad. It's not like they are the 80's San Francisco, 85 Bears, 90's Cowboys, or 98 Broncos.
Projected Finish-- 14-2
AFC Playoff Seed-2

Denver
Record-- 9-2
Remaining Opponents--Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, Oakland, San Diego
Outlook--KC is not as good as their record. Baltimore and Buffalo are terrible. And Shanahan absolutely owns the Raiders and Chargers in his tenure as the Broncos head coach. They will win out. Their toughest tests will be against KC and Baltimore, 2 teams they don't usually play well against. If Indianapolis loses 2 games 1 of those loses will be from Jacksonville or San Diego meaning that Denver would own the top spot in the AFC based on tiebreakers. Just watch, it's going to happen.
Projected Record-- 14-2
AFC Playoff Seed--1

In Barring a Monumental Collapse

Cincinnati
Record-- 8-3
Remaining Opponents--Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City
Outlook-- Is there any possible way that they don't at least win 3 of those games? Didn't think so. However, if they lose to Pittsburgh and lose 1 other game, there is a very high probability they end up as the wild card and not the division champ.
Projected Record-- 11-5
AFC Playoff Seed--6

New England
Record-- 6-5
Remaning Opponents--NY Jets, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, NY JetsOutlook--They finish with 4 of their last 5 games within the division, and their division is absolutely awful. They don't look very good this year, but it ain't gonna matter as their division is terrible.
Projected finish-- 10-6
AFC Playoff Seed-- 4(because division champ)

On the Bubble but Likely In

Pittsburgh
Record-- 7-3
Remaining Opponents-- Indianapolis, Cinncinati, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, Cleveland, Detroit
Outlook--The first 4 on that schedule look tough. However, they have Roethlisberger coming back and the difference between him and Maddox or Batch is so great that it can't be understated. Roethlisberger when starting and playing the entire game in the NFL has lost to a grand total of 1 team--New England. I don't see them on the schedule.
Projected Record-- 11-5
AFC Playoff Seed--3

Jacksonville
Record-- 8-3
Remaining Opponents-- Cleveland, Indianapolis, Houston, San Francisco, Tennessee
Outlook--Leftwich is out for a month, which probably moves them from the lock category down to here. But seriously, is there any way they fail to win at least 3 games with those cupcakes on the schedule-besides Indy. Plus if they end up with the same record as Pittsburgh or Cinci they get a higher seed due to tiebreakers.
Projected Record-- 11-5
AFC Playoff Seed--5

On the Bubble but likely Out

San Diego
Record-- 7-4
Remaining Opponents--Oakland, Miami, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Denver
Outlook--They need to win 4 of their last 5 to get in. Won't happen. Not playing Indy and Denver and going to KC in late December.
Projected Record-- 10-6
AFC Playoff Seed--None

Looks Like they have a Chance but Really They Don't

Kansas CityRecord-- 7-4
Remaining Opponents--Denver, Dallas, NY Giants, Cincinnati, San Diego
Outlook--Look who they've beat, a bunch of cupcakes. Now look who they finish with. If They end up above .500 that may be an accomplishment.
Projected Finish-- 8-8
AFC Playoff Seed--None

Wild Card Playoff Games

New England Over Jacksonville---Brady comes up big and experience prevails over youth.

Pittsburgh Over Cincinnati--Anybody seen teams try to throw in Pittsburgh in the snow in January? Doesn't work so well. Now what does work is a power running game and great defense. Yeah, now tell me which team wins.

Divisional Playoff Games

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh--In the snow, Pittsburgh wins. However, Indy gets to play on that beautiful home turf. They win big, maybe by 40.

Denver over New England--Battle of attrition, great game in terrible whether. However Denver wins with a better defense and running game.

Conference Championship

Denver over Indianapolis--Denver has Indianapolis's kryptonite, snow. In mid January that home field tiebreaker and that loss to San Diego come back to haunt Indy. If it's on the turf it's a different story, but Indy doesn't win in the cold. Broncos advance.

Upcoming--NFC and Super Bowl Predictions

Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Keepers for Next Year

2005-11-16T15:14:00.000-06:00

1. ARod--God I hate him, but he's undeniably good, and 3B is just harder to fill than 1B
2. Pujols--He's got an argument to be #1, not a winning one, but an argument
3. Ortiz--Everything is on par with the first two players except the fact that he's a DH which hurts him
4. D Lee--Gotta have some one year wonder worries, don't worry though he's got the talent to do this every year
5. Teixiera--Boy we are starting to get alot of 1B up here at the top
6. Manny Ramirez--I don't care where he ends up, he's a top producer
7. Santana--Wins come some years, others they don't, but he's by far the best pitcher in MLB and Fantasy Baseball
8. Soriano--Starting to get comfortable in that Rangers lineup, watch out
9. Crawford--This guys going to be real good for a real long time
10. Carpenter--Definitely worthy of the Cy Young
11. Willis--May actually have more upside than Carpenter
12. Bay--No, I'm not kidding you, this kid can really hit
13. Cabrera--Speaking of kids, this guys sick, he vaults to the top 10 next year
14. Young--SS looks a little thin next year
15. Vlad--watch out though, his stock seems to be going down and those back injuries may have caught up to him
16. Wright--Man was he impressive, and one of the few 3B along with ARod that can add some SB
17. Abreu--Still a great overall performer, will have better protection in the lineup next year
18. Figgins--Man, SB sure are worth alot, which means Figgins is a must keep
19. Sheffield--Still plugging away with those great overall numbers
20. Oswalt--Is this the year he finally gets the Cy Young? Only back to back 20 game winner and his a=other numbers are great too
21. Pettite--He's back and he still knows how to pitch
22. Andruw Jones--Was that a breakthrough year or a career year?
23. Peavy--Don't forget about him down there in San Diego
24. Utley--2B and look at those numbers, Soriano may have some competition for the top 2B spot
25. Bonds--If he's healthy, I remember those numbers he can put up

Fantasy Basketball Players You Can Get Cheap that Will Really Help Your Team

2005-11-16T14:56:00.000-06:00

Brevin Knight-Bobcats--all this guy does it put up a ton of assists, alot of steals, and shoot free throws well, and that should be plenty, however chances are you have about a 50-50 shot of finding him on the waiver wire because he's not a sexy choice and owners are worried about Felton taking some of his playing time, pick this guy up and ride him as long as you can.
Ricky Davis--Celtics--his lines are sick, lots of points, decent averages, lots of steals, a good number of Rebounds, and here's the kicker--lots of assists, Ricky Davis may just have figured it out, however you can probably get him cheap because of his reputation, try to steal him away as you may be looking at a top 20 performer for the rest of the year
David West--Hornets--If this guys still on your waivers, grab him and feel lucky, he shoots a good percentage, is a good rebounder, and should get some serious minutes in that Hornet lineup, he won't ever wow you but he's solid all around
Troy Murphy--It's gonna take a little bit to pry this guy away from his owner, but do it. He Rebounds, Scores, and shoots 3's at a good rate and percentage, and he's a PF, his shooting percentages aren't great but he makes up for it everywhere else.

Top 10 Guy Movies of all Time

2005-11-16T14:44:00.000-06:00

1. Gladiator--What You do in Life Echoes an Eternity
2. Top Gun--Rivals the Godfather as one of the most quoted movies by guys ever, although that beach volleyball scene really hurts it's chances for #1
3. Goodfellas--Funny how?, More replayability than the Godfather thus garners a higher spot
4. The Godfather--#1 on the required viewing list for all guys
5. Fight Club--Some good old fashioned fighting, gotta love it
6. Braveheart--All the Battles, gotta love the gore
7. Pulp Fiction--So much to like, gets downgraded though because it's a little to hard to follow after a 12 pack of beer
8. Reservoir Dogs--Why do I gotta be Mr. Pink
9. Gone In 60 Seconds--All about the cars
10. Scarface--Say hello to my little friend

Back after alot of Turmoil

2005-11-16T14:05:00.000-06:00

It's been way too long and I'm going to have to get back at this. In the days since my last post I've graduated from law school, seen the place I lived the last three years of my life in destroyed by a hurricane, had my fiance's younger brother die in a car wreck, taken the bar, and prepared to take another bar, and oh yeah moved. So it's been hectic but I'll get this blog going again. I should at least have a few posts later today and expect more by the end of the week.

Keeper League Draft--A Break Down--Part 2

2005-03-29T23:17:00.000-06:00

Round 12
10-- J. Estrada
9-- F. García
8-- B. Radke
7-- M. Buehrle
6-- D. Wells
5-- B. Crosby
4-- M. Alou
3-- A. Rowand
2-- J. Wilson
1-- D. Willis
Analysis--The SP taken in this round are all good. They are a classic example of how good pitching can be found in the middle rounds. You need one or two aces early and then just wait for these middle rounds and go SP heavy. Good hitters are harder to find later than good pitchers. The SS taken in this round are ridiculous. Crosby is a late round pick at best, see my earlier column on Deep Sleepers. But he wasn't even the worst...Worst Pick--Wilson--Had a career year and faded as bad as almost anybody down the stretch last year. These two SS should really be on the waiver wire in most leagues. Here they were taken in the 12th round. Classic Draft mistake of taking a player to simply fill out your fantasy roster. Best Pick--Estrada--as good as any C out there and huge upside.
Round 13
1-- M. Piazza
2-- C. Carpenter
3-- D. Wright
4-- T. Hunter
5-- A. Burnett
6-- B. Penny
7-- J. Vidro
8-- Od. Pérez
9-- L. Hernández
10-- C. Utley
Analysis--Maybe a little early for Utley but 2B is a very thin position and he's an up and coming star. Where else can you get those type of numbers outside Giles and Soriano. He's better and younger than Kent and Boone. At the very least, he's as good as Vidro who went in the same round. In most drafts you can find him late, or maybe even pick him off of waivers. Don't pass on him. As far as Wright goes, see my Deep Sleepers column about rookies. Stay away from them. 9 times out of ten it's a waste of a pick. If you're league uses CG's as a category, draft Hernandez, or trade for him if possible, he can win that category alone. Worst Pick--Piazza--Even more done than Sosa. Best Pick--Burnett--Possible ace if he can stay healthy.
Round 14
10-- B. Ryan
9-- J. Bonderman
8-- B. Giles
7-- T. Glavine
6-- B. Arroyo
5-- P. Lo Duca
4-- Ja. Wright
3-- J. Guillén
2-- A. Jones
1-- B. Webb
Analysis--About the time you see SP like Bonderman, Arroyo, and Wright going off the board, you need to stop taking SP's, or look for ones that people have passed by. These are classic mistake and reach picks. Best Pick--Guillen--great talent and character isn't a stat in fantasy leagues. Worst Pick--Lo Duca--He gives you nothing but maybe average, just let someone else take him.
Round 15
1-- L. Ford
2-- B. Wickman
3-- J. Uribe
4-- S. Finley
5-- J. Westbrook
6-- J. Morneau
7-- K. Griffey Jr
8-- K. Benson
9-- C. Cordero
10-- B. Colón
Analysis--This is a great point to look for those players that were either passed over because of injury pasts but have huge upside, are in their second year and have huge potential but are unproven, had a terrible year last year, or just somehow went unnoticed and slipped in the draft. Worst Pick--Benson--His wife is hot though. Best Pick--Morneau--One of those, how did he slip this far in the draft players that keep coming up, try and find an expert who doesn't think he'll hit at least 35 HR.
Round 16
10-- G. Maddux
9-- T. Nixon
8-- E. Guardado
7-- D. Graves
6-- B. Madritsch
5-- R. Sexson
4-- K. Brown
3-- C. Crisp
2-- J. Lieber
1-- Z. Greinke
Analysis--This is about where most of these players should go. But Sexson has too much upside to last this long. Greinke is a popular sleeper pick but this is about the correct draft placement. Best Pick--Maddux--Not a sexy pick in the least but his ERA and wins are always great. Plus if your league uses WHIP as a category, as most leagues do, there is no excuse to not draft Maddux. Stupid. Worst Pick--Guardado--Injured, never draft an injured closer, they hardly ever regain their job and even if they do they even more rarely regain their dominant stuff within the year.
Round 17
1-- J. Blanton
2-- P. Konerko
3-- S. Casey
4-- S. Green
5-- D. Haren
6-- M. Batista
7-- D. Roberts
8-- J. Bagwell
9-- J. Giambi
10-- O. Cabrera
Analysis--And I thought Patterson was a travesty to last til the 10th Round. Best Pick--Konerko--Look at his numbers, then look at Thome's numbers. He's young with a ton of upside. Everyone who passed on him should be ashamed of themselves. Worst Pick--Blanton--Rookie Pitchers, not a good idea. Wait for them to have a few good outings then pick them up off the waiver wire. Plus that offense isn't going to provide him with a lot of room for error. Not a good idea.
Round 18
10-- B. Roberts
9-- A. Boone
8-- P. Feliz
7-- E. Milton
6-- P. Wilson
5-- L. Walker
4-- J. Mesa
3-- K. Escobar
2-- A. Pierzynski
1-- L. Hawkins
Analysis--Worst Pick--Milton--not a ton of upside, his wins were a fluke. My question is if you're presented with choosing between players like Pierzynski and Escobar who even if they work out have a very limited upside why would you not take someone like Wilson or Walker who have a ton of upside. Best Pick--Feliz--SS eligible and could but up huge numbers, multi position eligibility is always nice to find late in drafts.
Round 19
1-- K. Matsui
2-- M. Lawton
3-- K. Mench
4-- T. Womack
5-- R. López
6-- B. Mueller
7-- U. Urbina
8-- A. Pettitte
9-- R. Hernández
10-- W. Williams
Analysis--Best Pick--Mueller--He's eligible at 2B somehow. Use him there! He's better than at least half of the other players drafted to fill that position. I love the Woody Williams and Pettite picks as well. Williams especially in that ballpark could be great. Worst Pick--Urbina--they didn't give Percival all that money to be a set up man.
Round 20
10-- B. Inge
9-- M. Barrett
8-- G. Jenkins
7-- D. Lowe
6-- P. Nevin
5-- D. Báez
4-- M. Cameron
3-- S. Kazmir
2-- W. Miller
1-- T. Gordon
Analysis--One thing late in the draft. Don't take marginal injured players. Worst Pick--Miller--perfect example of this, nobody's going to want to use a DL spot on him, pitchers take time to regain their stuff when coming back from injury, and this makes no sense. Best Pick--Inge--Multi position players are worth they're wait in gold late in drafts. Especially Inge, who's eligible at C and should really be used as a starter at that position over almost any C you can think of outside of Javy, Martinez, Pudge, Posada, Varitek, and Estrada.
Round 21
1-- A. Kearns
2-- R. Durham
3-- T. Iguchi
4-- M. Morris
5-- D. McPherson
6-- A. Otsuka
7-- M. Bellhorn
8-- J. Dye
9-- P. Burrell
10-- M. Adams
Analysis--When you get down to the end of the draft, it's tough to have a worst pick. But you can easily have a a best pick. The end of the draft is about low risk high reward. There's no sense in taking someone who is injured and may or may not start at a position, like McPherson. However someone like Iguchi who plays at a shallow position and won two SB titles in Japan and plays for the White Sox who love to run is such a great pick. Worst Pick-McPherson. Best Pick--Iguchi. One last thought now you can look back on the draft, How much more valuable is Mota--a closer taken in the 6th round than Adams--a closer taken with the last pick in the draft? There isn't a whole lot of difference at all. These are the type of things that win and lose you championships.

Keeper League Draft--A Break Down--Part 1

2005-03-29T18:15:00.000-06:00

Here's a Breakdown of a Keeper League Draft which I did not participate in. The first 4 rounds were the keeper rounds. If you kept a player you lost a draft pick. It's a typical 5x5 Roto League. We'll start with a Breakdown of each teams keepers.
Team 1--A. Béltre, V. Martínez, G. Sheffield, J. Rollins--Sheffield and Martinez are both 2nd round talent but Martinez and Rollins are not worthy of a 4th round pick. At best, both are 5th rounders. Rollins has been going way too high in the drafts I've been seeing.
Team 2--M. Ramírez, J. Schmidt, M. Teixeira, C. Zambrano--It's tough to have no keepers in the IF, but here I wouldn't let any of these guys go to an open draft. Nice list, and it allows you to focus on the IF with your round 5-10 picks.
Team 3--Á. Rodríguez, M. Cabrera, J. Peavy, Ol. Pérez--These SP are not worthy of a round 4 pick. Plus Perez and Peavy aren't going to give you wins and both pitched out of their minds last year. I don't see anywhere for them to go but down.
Team 4--I. Suzuki, E. Gagne, T. Hudson, J. Thome--A very uninspiring Keeper List, You have no first round talent, which is a huge problem. Thome and Hudson are overrated and Lidge, Rivera, and K-Rod are almost as valuable as Gagne. Yuck
Team 5--C. Beltrán, M. Mora, B. Lidge, J. Edmonds--Mora and Lidge are at best 5th rounders. 3B is incredibly deep and nobody expects Mora to keep going at his current pace. Not to go on a tangent, but Beltran being picked first in any league is a joke. Don't do it. Abreu is a better pick than Beltran.
Team 6--R. Johnson, C. Schilling, B. Bonds, M. Young--You had a nice list until Bonds went down. You can't do much better at the top of a rotation than Johnson and Schilling. SS isn't as deep as everybody thinks and Young is a top 5 talent.
Team 7--A. Pujols, S. Rolen, P. Martínez, M. Rivera--Good set but Rivera may be a bit of a stretch. Keeping a closer is not always the best idea and I believe Rivera may have gotten exposed last year in the Playoffs. Even the best pitchers eventually lose it.
Team 8--M. Tejada, A. Soriano, C. Crawford, B. Sheets--Two legitimate 1st rounders and a borderline 1st rounder. This is a bounty of talent. Sheets is a quality ace as well.
Team 9--V. Guerrero, B. Abreu, D. Ortiz, D. Jeter--Two legitimate 1st rounders and two legitimate 2nd rounders. A bounty of talent. Don't worry about pitching, it can always be found later. This is the best set of keepers of any team in the league.
Team 10--J. Santana, T. Helton, R. Oswalt, J. Pierre--2 First Rounders, 2 borderline second rounders. Oswalt seems to be slipping for some reason in drafts, there's a reason he's starting opening day over the 7 time Cy Young Award Winner.
Round 5
1--J. Reyes
2--V. Wells
3--N. Garciaparra
4--J. Beckett
5--C. Lee
6--M. Giles
7--É. Rentería
8--E. Chávez
9--Fr. Rodríguez
10--A. Dunn
Analysis--Terrible Round of drafting, only Chavez, Dunn, Giles were worthy of where they were drafted. Worst Pick--Reyes--over Giles, this is unbelievable. Best Pick--Dunn--The news out of Reds camp is that the manager wants him to steal at least 20 bases, 20 SB and 50 HR is first round talent.
Round 6
10--R. Furcal
9--J. Nathan
8--K. Foulke
7--R. Clemens
6--A. Ramírez
5--A. Huff
4--T. Glaus
3--C. Delgado
2--B. Wagner
1--G. Mota
Analysis--The Closer Run, always happens--quick thought, I never participate in them unless I start them. If there's one coming and there's someone you really want, grab him. Otherwise stay out of it. It's unbelievable that some of these closers were taken, I mean Guillermo Mota!! Worst Pick--Glaus--Injury prone and unreliable even when healthy. Best Pick--Aubrey Huff, Unbelievably talented and multi position eligible.
Round 7
1--R. Harden
2--L. Castillo
3--J. López
4--I. Rodríguez
5--K. Wood
6--T. Hafner
7--J. Damon
8--H. Blalock
9--A. Benítez
10--M. Prior
Analysis--I cannot get past Castillo. This is one of the worst picks I can remember in any league. Harden is a great pick. He could have a Santana-like breakout year. Worst Pick--Castillo--maybe worst ever. Best Pick--Blalock--He should have been gone three rounds ago. This guy is great.
Round 8
10--F. Cordero
9--J. Kent
8--C. Pavano
7--J. Varitek
6--J. Isringhausen
5--R. Halladay
4--B. Looper
3--T. Hoffman
2--B. Zito
1--L. Overbay
Analysis--More closers, unbelievable. If you find yourself in this type of draft--punt the category during the draft. You should never have 2 closers through 8 rounds of the draft. Yet one of these teams has 3 already. Worst Pick--Overbay--No help in Milwaukee and he's the type of player you can find on the waiver wire. Best Pick--None--Terrible Round of Drafting.
Round 9
1--C. Figgins
2--J. Kendall
3--M. Mussina
4--B. Boone
5--D. Kolb
6--J. Bay
7--H. Matsui
8--D. Lee
9--J. Drew
10--C. Jones
Analysis--Nice Recovery from a terrible round of drafting in Round 8. Only 1 bad pick out of the bunch. Worst Pick--Kendall--You should never, ever, pick a player just to simply fill a position. Kendall is nowhere near a 9th round pick. He won't run, score much, or drive in anybody in Oakland. So basically you spent a 9th round pick on somebody who hits .300 and does absolutely nothing else. Best Pick--Matsui--Hits in the middle of the best lineup in baseball and seems to get better every year.
Round 10
10--M. Ordóñez
9--J. Vázquez
8--J. Posada
7--M. Mulder
6--C. Patterson
5--M. Loretta
4--C. Guillén
3--J. Smoltz
2--T. Percival
1--S. Takatsu
Analysis--Anaother relatively well drafted round. Once again more closers are gone. Is Takatsu or Percival much worse than Mota? Yet one was taken 4 rounds earlier. Worst Pick-Mulder--Look at the numbers, he's an injury risk and his numbers simply aren't elite. The Cardinals got hosed in this trade. Haren will be twice the pitcher over his career that Mulder is. Best Pick--Corey Patterson--A 30-30 player should never, ever slip into the 10th round. Never. If he raises that batting average he'll be one of the top fantasy players overall.
Round 11
1--S. Podsednik
2--M. Lowell
3--O. Dotel
4--A. Leiter
5--B. Wilkerson
6--J. Mauer
7--S. Sosa
8--G. Anderson
9--M. Clement
10--L. Berkman
Analysis--Posednik seems like a value until you factor in that he probably won't steal 70 bases again and he hits .244 which can kill your average. I wouldn't ever draft the guy. Wilkerson's average isn't alot better either. Leiter has been terrible in Spring training and Dotel couldn't handle the closer's job last season and seems destined to lose his job to Huston Street yet the worst pick of the round is-----Worst Pick--Sosa--Sosa and this owner are apparently the only two people who didn't get the memo that he's through. The Cubs would not pay all of his contract and ship him off even though he sells tickets unless this guy was completely through. Best Pick--Berkman--Fantasy baseball championships aren't won in April. Berkman is a second round talent and you can always find someone who gets hot in April to fill in for him. Don't let this guy go to another owner, it may cost you a fantasy league title.
Round 12-21 to come tomorrow, or later tonight.

Deep Sleepers

2005-03-24T10:30:00.000-06:00

So you're down to the last few picks in your draft and looking for the great sleeper to fill out your bench. The question is who should you pick. One general tip is to stay away from rookies, in fact this applies to the entire draft. Although it's tempting to try and grab the top rookies in your draft, except for in rare cases their stats just don't measure up. For example the AL ROY Award winner, Crosby, had these stats last year--70 R, 22 HR, 64 RBI, and a . 239 avg--good for 295th in the yahoo player rating in my 6x6 Roto league. Even the best rookies don't provide alot of help for you. It's much better to target players hitting their prime years, their late 20's. So here's some good candidates:
Adam Everett, SS, Astros--Will hit leadoff for the Astros this year and should score 100+R, add in close to 20 HR, and 25 SB and a nice average around .280 and he should be a great fantasy contributor this year.
Brandon Inge, C, 3B, OF, Tigers--Eligibility at C in most leagues is huge, you can do alot worse at C than .280, 20 HR, 65R, 85 RBI's that he's sure to provide
Morgan Ensberg, 3B, Astros--Lost his power stroke last year but this is the guy that hit 25 HR in less than 400 AB in 2003. He regained his stroke at the end of last year and in the playoffs and the Astros are counting on him to produce this year, and so should you.
Ryan Freel, 2B, 3B, OF, Reds--Watch that position battle in Cincinnati for 2B, if Freel is a full time starter he's a guaranteed 40+ SB at a weak position-2B.
Garrett Atkins, 3B, Rockies--The Rookie rule is nullified here by the Rockie rule--anybody can hit at Coors. And Atkins isn't just anybody, he's got a huge bat. The only reason he may not be a factor this year is because he may not be able to win the 3B job due to terrible defense. This guy hits a ton, if he wins that position, pick him up.
Matt Holliday OF, Rockies--target this guy a few rounds earlier than some of the rest. He'll be hitting in the middle of the lineup and thus have a ton of RBI opportunities. .290, 30 HR, and 100 RBI is not out of the question.
JD Closser, C, Rockies--May have to split time with Charles Johnson(And no, I don't know how he's still in the league). But if he wins that job he also has alot of power and could provide a good option at C.
Horacio Ramirez, SP, Atlanta--Was dominating before his injury last year, plus never underestimate the power of Leo Mazzeone.
Scott Kazmir, SP, Devil Rays--May be a year away, but worth a shot in the later rounds.
Noah Lowry, SP, Giants--This guy has scary stuff. Was 6-0 in 14 starts with 72 K's and a 3.82 ERA. Grab this guy.

Borowski hurting again

2005-03-22T10:31:00.000-06:00

This should come as no surprise to Cubs fans: Joe Borowski is hurting again. Are the Cubs really cursed? I'm starting to think so.

[Picture a goat...] Baaah! Baaaaah!

Off Topic Question

2005-03-22T09:23:00.000-06:00

Two impromptu questions or polls
Subject: Cheap-o Beer

What is the Best Cheap-o Beer?
What is the Worst Cheap-o Beer?
What expensive Beer is absolutely terrible?

These are very important questions that I believe need answering.
My Answers are
Best: Miller High Life--put a lime in it and tell me it doesn't taste like a Corona
Worst: Red Dog--Unbearably terrible, Who drinks this stuff?
Terrible Expensive Beer: Rolling Rock--It tastes like watered down skunky Beer

Subject: Chick Flicks posing as Sports Movies

What's the Best Sports Movie that's really a Chick Flick?
What's the Worst Chick Flick posing as a Sports Movie?

My Answers:
Best: Jerry Maguire--the movie is just simply entertaining, and yes I know it is the epitome of a chick flick
Worst: Rocky--Why do they have to wussify Rocky with Adrian? I mean it ruins the entire series. And she's just a terrible character, when I watch those movies I find myself hoping that Rocky just loses it and beats the crap out of her.

Draft Strategies--Punting a Category

2005-03-22T08:24:00.000-06:00

Giving up or punting a category is a strategy as old as fantasy baseball itself. The question remains, how effective is this strategy? As always, the answer depends on a variety of factors. For example in a head to head league punting a category is an infinitely better strategy than in a roto league. For example, I took a punt in blocks in both a roto basketball league and a head to head league. I haven't won blocks once in the head to head league yet I'm still in first. Yet my punt in the roto league, 10 points, is the difference between 8th place and 2nd place. Another important factor is the number of categories and number of players. The more possible categories, the less important one category is. For example, I am currently in a head to head league with 20 categories. Thus SB are extremely devalued in importance.
Assuming you are in a typical 5x5 league, in this format punting a category is tough to do and still plan to win the league. The only time I would recommend punting a category is when your league mates are extremely overvaluing the stat and drafting one category performers way too early in the draft. This is most commonly seen with closers in fantasy baseball drafts. If you see Jason Isringhausen going in the 3rd round and Braden Looper in the 5th. Then you need to forget about drafting a closer and focus on shoring up your team in other areas. Let everyone else compete to win that one category wile you dominate the other 9 because you picked up Teixiera in the third round instead of Isringhausen and Hideki Matsui in the 5th instead of instead of Braden Looper. Plus remember that the closer position on most teams is constantly changing. Just a few weeks ago Justin Speier and Jason Frasor were frontrunners for the Blue Jays and Ryan Dempster and Latroy Hawkins were competing for the Cubs closer's job. Now, Joe Borowski is the closer for the Cubs and Miguel Batista is the closer for Toronto. Instead of spending big for closers, scour the waiver wires for them during the season. Brad Lidge was on the the waiver wire last year and then went on to save almost 30 games, this is not uncommon.
Now to address the other punt category in fantasy baseball, stolen bases. I would never recommend totally punting steals because typically the guys that add steals also add high batting averages and lots of runs scored. Thus they are not a one category performer like closers. Typically those SB studs-Crawford, Pierre, Ichiro, Abreu, Beltran-go in the first and second rounds. If you pick up one of these guys, you're in great shape in the category, if you pick up two then you probably don't need to worry about that category for the ret of the draft. However, don't worry if you get none of these players, you don't have to punt the category. Players like Dave Roberts, Ryan Freel, Endy Chavez can all be picked up much later. I typically try to find 3 or 4 20-30 steals guys instead of focusing on getting that one stud. If you try to shoot for about 80-100 steals from your top 4 SB guys on your team then you should be in good shape to at least finish near the middle of the pack in steals.

M.A.S.H. Unit

2005-03-21T11:08:00.000-06:00

Some updates on the various injuries of impact fantasy players:
Mark Prior: Threw about10-12 pitches for the first time since March 10. Cubs are refusing to put a timetable on his return. That's always a bad sign. Most news services and his manager are saying he'll return in mid to late April. Don't count on it, I would say early May is the earliest you can expect him back. Move him out of the top 10 Pitchers list to around 15th overall, right around Clemens, Wood and Pavano.
Barry Bonds: He was nowhere near close to returning from his late January surgery. With him having sugery on it on the 17th and basically starting over from scratch with his rehab there is no possible way he'll be back in April. Expect him back at the very earliest in mid May, more likely though would be an early June return. Let someone else draft Bonds in the late first round, pick up a healthy option instead. Not having a first round pick for at least a month and a half can kill your fantasy season.
Kerry Wood: Wood's on track to open the season in the Cubs Rotation. He hasn't experienced a setback recently and has looked sharp. Look for him to start the fourth or fifth game of the Cubs season. However, expecting him to be healthy the entire season is unrealistic. If he starts 30 games this year it would be a major accomplishment.
Curt Schilling: Still on his way back from ankle surgery. There is no way he pitches before April 18, the Red Sox have already commited to a 4 man rotation until then. There's a very good possibility he will miss the first month of the season. Push him below Oswalt, Martinez, Sheets, and Schmidt on your draft list.
Mark Buehrle: Just found out he has a broken foot. Expect him to miss at least the first month of the season. A return in mid May is the most likely possibility.
Brad Penny: On his way back from that troublesome biceps injury. He will start the season on the DL but don't expect him to miss more than the first two starts of the season. He'll be back by mid April.
Odalis Perez: Almost the exact same prognosis as Penny. He should miss the first one or two starts of the season but he'll be ready to go after that.
Lance Berkman: There's been no setbacks in his rehab from the ACL injury. The earlies you can hope for is a late April Return. Expect him back in early to mid May, likely before Bonds or Prior. He's a 2nd round talent when healthy and he's been dropping to the 8th-10th rounds in my drafts. Target him then and thank me later when he only misses the first month of the season.

Top 50 Players

2005-03-20T22:51:00.000-06:00

1. Alex Rodriguez--In a down year he almost went 30-30 with 100+ R, and 100+ RBI.
2. Vlad Guerrero--Numbers as good as Pujols, and has no injury issues this year.
3. Albert Pujols--He's only 25. That is scary. Could be the Babe Ruth of our Generation. Without health Issues he would be #1
4. Bob Abreu--Look at those numbers. They look a whole lot like A Rod's.
5. Johan Santana--Usually I'm wary of taking pitcher's this high, I even slotted Prior in Round 2 last year, but this guy can be unhittable.
6. Miguel Tejada--SS is weak this year, and 150 RBI's is absolutely ridiculous, especially considering the O's lineup is probably better this year
7. Randy Johnson--25 Wins is a real possibility. Don't let him slip. There is a noticeable drop in talent from Santana and Johnson to the other SP.
8. Carlos Beltran--That batting average is worrisome. Let someone else take him in the top 3 and grab other talent.
9. Todd Helton--Don't underestimate what the high batting average can do for you. Even with a depleted Rockies lineup and a deep 1B position he's worth a first round pick
10. Ichiro Suzuki--Don't expect him to hit .370 again, but .345 and 35 SB, 100+R is worth a 1st round pick. Remember, Steals are worth almost twice as much as HR's.
11. Manny Ramirez--Great in everything except steals. Probably the most dependable of all the first rounders.
12. Carl Crawford--59 steals is alot, especially when you consider that he's got quality numbers across the board except for in HR and RBI
13. Alfonso Soriano--First Round Price Tag is too steep to pay for someone who had very average numbers. Even with 2B being very shallow don't pay too much for him.
14. Scott Rolen--Top of a very deep 3B crop. Numbers are good all around.
15. Adrian Beltre--Risky because he had a career year in a contract year. Always a bad sign. However, Dodger's stadium isn't exactly a hitter's park and those numbers are outrageous.
16. Gary Sheffield--Almost guaranteed numbers. If your looking for consistency, he's your man.
17. Mark Teixiera--One of two guys I expect to hit 50 HR this year. This is the last year he won't be a first round pick.
18. Juan Pierre--Absolutely no power, but remember SB are worth almost twice as much as HR. So a guaranteed 40+ SB is very valuable.
19. Barry Bonds--Without the injury, he's a certain top 5 player. But there's a chance he's out until June, in which case this ranking is even too high.
20. Jason Schmidt--Great numbers, but with Bonds possibly out until June his wins will suffer.
21. David Ortiz--Do not underestimate Papi. He has great numbers and hits cleanup in the best lineup in baseball.
22. Jim Edmonds--Always Underestimated. He is streaky, but his numbers are sick. Pick him up before your opponents, he'll be a bargain.
23. Miguel Cabrera--He's 21, that's right 21. That is absolutely ludicrous. If you're in a keeper league grab this guy early.
24. Eric Gagne--Always remember K's when factoring in a closer's value, closer's that get 100+ K's can win you the K's category.
25. Roy Oswalt--Don't worry, he'll still win a ton of games, plus look for an ERA under 3
26. Pedro Martinez--Look for numbers much like last year
27. Ben Sheets--If he was on any other team he would battle for the #1 pitcher's spot. As it is he just doesn't win quite enough games but all his other stats are spectacular.
28. Curt Schilling--Without the concern over his injury he's a top 5 pitcher, but he could have some real problems this year not to mention miss quite a few starts
29. Derek Jeter--This is the year he hits 30 HR
30. Carlos Zambrano--Let everyone else draft Wood and Prior, he's the true ace of the Cubs staff.
31. Aubrey Huff--Possibly Eligible at 3 positions. That's very important.
32. Brad Lidge--Will quickly become as valuable as Gagne. He's simply unhittable. Plus, he'll probably K more batters than Gagne.
33. Jake Peavy--Who lead the MLB in ERA last year? That's right, and he plays in the best pitcher's park in the league. Don't forget about him.
34. Eric Chavez--This is the year he becomes an elite player.
35. Adam Dunn--The other guy who should hit 50 HR. People complain about his batting average but if he even hits .260 he'll be a value at this pick.
36. Corey Patterson--30-30 player who should improve upon that terrible batting average. Grab him because power and speed is a deadly combination.
37. Tim Hudson--If he was great before Mazzione got ahold of him in Atlanta what can he do there. He may win 25 games.
38. Mariano Rivera--Maybe the greatest closer ever, he's consistent.
39. Michael Young--Continues to get better at a shallow position and is in one of the best lineups in all of baseball.
40. Oliver Perez--Much like Sheets, if he were on any other team he could contend for the #1 pitcher position.
41. Victor Martinez--The top C and just starting to reach his potential. That indians lineup is going to scare people this year.
42. Jim Thome--Most people have him rated much higher than this, but how much better are his numbers than Konerko's? use your high draft picks elsewhere.
43. Hideki Matsui--Hits in the middle of the best lineup in baseball. Do not underestimate him.
44. Keith Foulke--Hero of the postseason is a safe pick.
45. Hank Blalock--Nobody's lineup is getting better faster than the Ranger's. He may be as good as Teixiera, and that's saying alot.
46. Francisco Rodriguez--It's very rare you find 3 closers as talented as Gagne, Lidge, and Rodriguez in the same year. These guys all K as many batters as most starters.
47. Aramis Ramirez--His numbers are stellar. But he plays at a deep position and there are questions as to whether he can be the main man in a lineup.
48. Rafael Furcal--Once again the importance of steals are seen.
49. Melvin Mora--Can he keep up this stellar pace? That's all that's holding him back from a higher rating.
50. Marcus Giles--There are two top tier 2B . After Soriano and him there's nothing but old guys and question marks.

Top Fantasy Shortstops

2005-03-20T22:11:00.000-06:00

[This is a test run]

The top 4 fantasy shortstops for 2005, per my infinite wisdom:

(1): Miguel Tejada (duh!)
(2): Michael Young (tearing it up in Spring Training)
(3): Derek Jeter
(4): Jimmy Rollins

Let's See If this Works

2005-03-20T21:53:00.000-06:00

Just trying to create a site to share some thoughts on fantasy sports, specifically baseball.